Neo Ottoman Empire in Northern Syria

[Don Giovanni]

Good to see NATO and our PM make a joint-statement concerning Turkey's activities, both in Cyprus and Syria. They need to stop tolerating Turkey's threats, however. When Turkey openly declares that they will flood Europe with migrants the response should be that's a condition for war. Threats like that need equally measured responses. What Turkey was declaring would be an act of war against Europe.

[Reaper]

The funny thing is, Turkey is now playing the victim concerning the refugees. The reason there are so many refugees and the war has lasted so long is because:

Most Jihadists were trained in Turkey, by Turks to take over Syria.
Most Jihadists got and continue get their arms from Turkey.
When the Kurds were removing ISIS - they were simultaneously being bombed by Turks slowing down the whole process.
Turks were helping ISIS by buying their stolen oil.

So the refugee problem is Turkish made.

The reason nothing will happen? Because Germany remembers its allies. Turkey is an historic ally to Germany. WW1 the Ottomans helped Germany hugely. To reciprocate, Germany has over 4 million Turks living in Germany. That is why with each threat the Turks make against Europe - Merkel pays the Turks whatever they want. EU policy is German policy. Has been for 30 years now.

[Filikieteria1821]

Turkey always plays the victim, and always seems to get away with it.

On a positive note, 3 countries have stopped weapons sales to Turkey, Finland, Norway and Netherlands (29 million sold to them recently).

Good to see a few countries have a slight moral compass, but for the countries that carry immense importance, it's just look the other way

[Reaper]

This of course also plays a part.

https://europe.autonews.com/automake...t-skoda-superb

[Filikieteria1821]

No brainer for VW for a few reasons:

1)Turkey has 80 million
2) has lower business taxes than many EU countries (Greece needs to lower the business tax substantially if it wants foreign investment)
3) The lira is shit, so it's going to be cheaper for them to operate there, wages will also likely be much lower

[Filikieteria1821]

Since I'm at work, and twitter is banned (because my company is garbage) I'll have to type this tweet out

James LaPorta tweeted "Breaking and an exclusive developing story - Turkey bombs U.S. Special Forces in Syria attack, apparently by mistake"

Lara Segliman responded to the tweet saying "Gen Milley literally just said the Turkish military is "fully aware down to explicit grid coordinate detail" of the location of US forces"

https://www.newsweek.com/us-troops-syria-turkey-1464727

A contingent of U.S. Special Forces has been caught up in Turkish shelling against U.S.-backed Kurdish positions in northern Syria.

Newsweek has learned through both an Iraqi Kurdish intelligence official and senior Pentagon official that Special Forces operating in the Mashtenour hill in the majority-Kurdish city of Kobani fell under artillery fire from Turkish forces conducting their so-called "Operation Peace Spring" against Kurdish forces backed by the U.S. but considered terrorist organizations by Turkey.

[Reaper]

Kicking off now. Assad and Kurds just signed a deal. Seems the Syrian Army will take over all border positions currently being invaded by the Ottomans.

[Reaper]

Assad has already deployed his troops to key towns with the agreement of the Kurds - who gave up claims and put up Syrian flags. However, these areas were already earmarked for Ottoman occupation by Erdogan. Erdogan has stated that that doesn't matter and he will attack the Syrian army if they are in the areas earmarked for Turkic expansion. The Turks are now attacking Assad's troops as I type this. So this is an actual Syria vs Turkey war now.

Erdogan: Operation Peace Spring has the similar importance as 1974 Cyprus Peace Operation

[Reaper]

US planning to evacuate 50 nukes from Incirlik, near Turkish/Syrian border, officials tell @nytimes. 'Those weapons, one senior official said, were essentially Erdogan's hostages.'

Whoever had the bright idea to store US nukes in Turkey in the first place was seriously unwell..

[Don Giovanni]

About time the Kurds came to terms with Syria. At least Syria will have Russian and Iranian support. That will mitigate the inroads Turkey make, but the Turks will game some leverage and keep whatever morsels they have.

Turkey has now embarked on a lonely path with only Qatar and China able to offer meaningful support further down the road.

[Reaper]

And the EU sits there..

[Don Giovanni]

https://www.axios.com/trump-erdogan-...8b3a51f26.html

So Trump thought Erdogan was bluffing, but Erdogan made a public commitment to defeat the Kurds and left himself with no choice but to act on his word. He now faces the unhappy prospect of fighting not only the Kurds, but the Syrians who have the backing of Iran and Russia. Turkey meanwhile have no NATO or US support on the matter, given that it's Syrian, not Turkish, land. On top of that, they face sanctions which will hurt their economy. So now Turkey is racing to get as much leverage as possible when it comes time to negotiate a settlement. The prospect of Turkey retreating in defeat are very likely. It's shaping up to be a big win for Assad.

[Filikieteria1821]

100% Accurate breakdown of Erdogan's intentions

[Filikieteria1821]

I do not think Erdogan is going to backdown on Syria easily. It's going to take massive military defeat (doubtful) or a massive econimic depression (much more likely). Turkey's economy is so heavily invested in the EU that if the EU truly wanted to, they could essentially destroy Turkey's economy very quickly.

US sanctions, and mounting international condemnation are not going to really do much for Erdogan. He truly believes that Turkey is a booming country that deserves to be considered one of the most powerful countries. He is also sickly obsessed with recreating the ottoman empire

Also, even if Turkey were to kick out all the Kurds, but Syria regains the territories, Kurds will still be living in those areas. Effectively meaning that Turkey's objectives of demographically cleansing the area would have failed. Turkey will not stop unless they are defeated.

[Filikieteria1821]

Whoever had the bright idea to store US nukes in Turkey in the first place was seriously unwell..

This is a huge issue, and is not getting the press it deserves. US policy makers for decades have looked to Turkey as a beacon of moderate islam, with hopes they would somehow reform to the point of joining western institutions like the EU. It appears clear though that no one has has paid attention to Turkey or its history.

Now, when push comes to shove, Turkey housing these nukes is going to be a major bargaining sticking point as assuming this doesn't become even more heated, US foreign policy makers need to seriously consider moving the nukes out of Turkey and relocating them to Cyprus and/or Greece.