Iran and the larger game at hand

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  • Iran and the larger game at hand

    Recently Iran has seized a British ship in the strait of Hormuz. This was a tit-for-tat response to the UK seizing an Iranian ship off the cost of Syria. In addition, there have been accusations that Iran has unlawfully shot down US spy drones. Iran has claimed that the most recent downing was by the Americans themselves.

    These steadily escalating tensions have given rise to fresh concerns that a war with Iran (and potentially a broader war with Russia and China, i.e., a World War) may be on the horizon. Much will depend on the US president. The hope is he will continue to act against the counsel of nearly all his advisers like he did when he decided to withdraw a military strike that would have left 150 Iranians dead. It was revealed that Fox News personality Tucker Carlson was the leading voice (perhaps the only voice) who managed to get the president to act in accordance with his better judgement.

    The reality is Iran is not a threat to American interests and poses no serious national security risk to them. However, Iran is a threat to Israel. And being Shiites, they are a threat to Saudi Arabia, among other predominantly Sunni Arab emirates (kingdoms).

    The fear for Israel is that if Iran were to have a nuclear weapon, the threat would be considered grave enough to jeopardize the existence of Israel, which exists as both a spiritual home and safe haven for Jews. At the risk of nuclear annihilation, the Israelis may be forced to abandon their project. For this reason, Israel and her advocates have pushed this narrative concerning an Iranian nuclear threat to extreme ends. There are those in Israel who seek regional hegemony over a fractured and weakened (balkanized) Muslim world.

    The Saudis see Iran as threat due to Iran's Shiite Islamic fundamentalism. As a result, Saudi Arabia themselves have been pouring millions into support of Sunni Islamic fundamentalism to counter that influence. They too seek regional hegemony, but contrary to Israel they seek to unite the Muslim world.

    The Americans, for their part, seek global hegemony. They want to cutoff Russia and China from Eurasia and thus maintain the US's status as the world's sole superpower. Britain, France and Germany all maintain a keen interest in supporting the US and piggy-backing them in the belief that one day they too may reassert themselves as great powers, likely using the EU as their vehicle to do so.

  • #2
    This ship being captured is actually more to do with the pro-EU May Government's anti-americanism than anything else.

    The US offered to shield UK shipping in the area and it seems May flat out refused.. so the results were inevitable. May's Government is mostly remaniac, pro-EU, anti-Trump liberals - and it seems they could not put any of that on the back burner to protect UK shipping.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politi...ships-18498206

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ship-Iran.html

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...-deal-withthe/

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    • #3
      That's a very good point. I have the feeling they're goading the Iranians to act rashly and irrationally, hence Britain's seizure of their ship and Iran's tit-for-tat. The more they corner the Iranians, the more unbearable they make the sanctions, the more the Iranians will be forced to act out like a caged animal. They're looking to create a pretense for war.

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      • #4
        I didn't want to start a new thread on this - but found this interesting.

        http://www.ekathimerini.com/243547/a...n-persian-gulf
        US request for Greek assistance in Persian Gulf

        VASSILIS NEDOS
        • persian_gulf_web



        TAGS:Defense, Diplomacy

        Washington has reportedly asked Greece to make a contribution to a multinational naval force that will monitor the Persian Gulf in order to protect the freedom of navigation.

        Kathimerini understands that the American request, made a few days ago, referred to assistance either with a large naval unit – a frigate – or with an aerial intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance tool.

        However, at the moment, Greece does not have sufficient means to meet its own air surveillance needs, and is, therefore, unable to cater to demands of third parties.

        Moreover, after a series of meetings of the Greek Defense and Foreign ministries, it was decided, with regard to the request for naval assistance, that the Hellenic Navy cannot currently provide any frigates due to its standby situation in the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean.

        Athens also said that it is already participating in all allied naval training exercises – as it did last week with the Aigaion frigate in the multinational drill off the Israeli coast, which simulated conditions created by a massive earthquake.

        Greece did however say that it is making personnel already in the area (United Arab Emirates) available to the US military to participate in teams monitoring the wider Gulf region during this period of tension in the Strait of Hormuz.

        The US request for a Greek contribution to a multinational naval force was made on a bilateral level, as there is no decision by the United Nations or any other international organization for action against Iran.

        To date, major European countries, such as Germany, have refused to join a US-led naval force, and Paris has also made it clear that it will not waive its privilege of direct contacts with the Iranian leadership in Tehran.

        Athens is reportedly not to keen on getting involved in areas like the Persian Gulf. At the same time, it is giving ample consideration to its response regarding future US requests, given the investment it has made in its relationship with Washington.


        If I'm mitsotakis, I don't think twice about aiding America by giving a naval asset. For all the shit America has done to Greece, Turkey has proven itself to be unreliable. The US could be testing to waters on what countries to trust. You give a frigate, and America could return the favor by giving 2 arleigh burke ships with favorable terms, or something of that ilk.

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        • #5
          I think Trump is not wild enough to start a war with Iran. The fact he pulled back a military strike suggests as much. The situation should not escalate further than it has and I think if Greece were to be involved in this sort of assistance to the US, then Greece would do so at reasonable risk. I too think Greece should try to meet the American request.

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          • #6
            Greece met the Greek request with not allowing the tanker to dock in Greece, but did not offer any legitimate military/naval assets. Greece used Turkish aggression as a means to not get involved, which is somewhat believable given how the Turks are essentially questioning greek-greek cypriot sovereignty in the aegean/eastern Mediterranean.

            I too do not believe Trump wants a war with Iran, it would be incredibly costly, and would drag him in a foreign conflict that his campaign cannot afford.

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            • #7
              I saw that nonsense Erdogan pulled off where he gave a speech in front of a map that outlined where the Turks considered the Aegean waters theirs (all the way over to Crete). Turkey seems to be joining hands with Iran, becoming mercenaries for the greater glory of Qatar (whom the Saudis tried to isolate to little avail). They're going backwards, much like Iran did post-1980s, but it's their loss.

              If only Europe could treat the threat of Communism and Islamism with greater urgency than the threat of a resurgent Russia, then Europe would have its priorities right. Sadly, Europe is led by self-loathing, childless socialists who would rather makes their bed with Medieval countries like Iran, Qatar, and China, the very countries we should be opposing.

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              • #8
                Another key part of the secret element to the 25-year deal is that China will be integrally involved in the build-out of Iran’s core infrastructure, which will be in absolute alignment with China’s key geopolitical multi-generational project, ‘One Belt, One Road’ (OBOR). To begin with, China intends to utilise the currently cheap labour available in Iran to build factories that will be financed, designed, and overseen by big Chinese manufacturing companies with identical specifications and operations to those in China. The final manufactured products will then be able to access Western markets through new transport links, also planned, financed, and managed by China.

                Last week, at a meeting in Gilan province, former Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad alluded to some of the secret parts of this deal in public for the first time...

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