Turkey

[Don Giovanni]

Earlier analysis of the events projected that Iran would stay in the background of this conflict, not wishing to exacerbate tensions with Moscow or overextend its own troops by openly siding with Turkey—an alliance that until very recently was very much in doubt among pro-Turkish lobbyists in Washington. In fact, the cornerstone of US policy in the region has been to appease Turkey in the vain hope that pacifying Erdoğan would make him useful in countering Iran’s aggression in the region.

Instead, Erdoğan’s Turkey has become part and parcel of the intertwined geopolitical agenda between the two countries.

These are the two fronts where Israel can be helpful without having to get directly involved. Jerusalem could also—and, indeed, should—prevail upon Washington to withdraw its support from terrorists and Islamists before they end up coming head to head with America’s real allies.

[Don Giovanni]

The Turks are blinking. They have put a pause on their plans. Erdogan will await the outcome of negotiations. I think he knows as well as we know that outcome already, so this is really a chance to appear like he was willing to negotiate and change tact, probably reverting back to his previous posturing of preventing us to drill in our waters.

The Turks can complain and bitch as much as they want that it's not fair, but the fact remains they harbor preposterous ambitions and take the West for fools. There's no possibility for them to get a piece of the pie, not like this. Until they comport themselves and purge themselves of Erdogan and his ilk for good, there's no room for Turkey on a Western table. Maybe there was never any chance. It could be said Turkey's nationalistic paranoia and Muslim beliefs were death knells from the get go. As it is, if Turkey prefers to sit at a table with Iran, Qatar and Communist China, I'd be only too happy to see them depart the orbit of the West for the East.

[Filikieteria1821]

There is no reason to sit at a negotiation table with Turkey, especially if their request is to have every "dispute" on the table. If they really want to go down that path, should we speak about the 1955 pogrom, and the failure of turkey to protect religious/ethnic minorities,we can talk about imbros/tenedos, the list goes on .

Greece's immediate next steps should be an EEZ agreement with Egypt followed by another agreement with Cyprus.

Turkey is going to have the Barbaros invading the Cypriot EEZ, but since Cyprus can't defend itself it's seen as a victory.

Germany has announced a freeze on all weapon sales to Turkey, minus naval weapons (the german submarines that Greece has that has given us a naval advantage is about to become a thing of the past as Turkey is set to receive these same subs) - Germany is about a year or two too late with this move and the continuation of naval weapon sales means Turkey will still receive what it needs to continue its attempt at the mavi vatan doctrine.

[Reaper]

Greece's immediate next steps should be an EEZ agreement with Egypt followed by another agreement with Cyprus.

This.

[Don Giovanni]

We have to keep appearances with these "negotiations," like Erdogan is trying to do, but the fact they're now sending a ship into Cypriot waters acknowledges what we all know, that negotiations are for show and nothing more.

Anyways, Turkey was always going to change tact once we made it clear we were going to dig our heels. Erdogan's bullying of Cyprus is just another pussy move. It's too bad because I was hoping Tayyeep would double down and send that drill ship into our waters. In any case, Turkey, at least under the fool, has made it very clear to the West that they are no longer team players and I don't think the Russians will offer much in assistance beyond propping up the fool a little so he remains in power. Given Russia's ambitions in Libya and Syria are at logger heads with the Turks, I don't think Putin will care too much if Erdogan got slapped around a little by the West. If anything, he'd be happy for it.

I think President Trump needs to wake up like Bush Sr had with Saddam, but I hope the president is wise enough to wake up before something happens, because it took Saddam to invade Kuwait before Bush Sr realized his mistake.

[tantra]

Donald Trump’s puzzling relationship with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has long perplexed policy watchers. Things have become much clearer after the release of The Room Where It Happened, the new book from former National Security Advisor John Bolton, which reveals new details about Trump, Erdogan, and Iran that should worry the public even more.

The most perplexing detail, less well-known to the public but frequently mentioned in Bolton’s book, is Trump’s soft spot for Halkbank — Turkey’s second-largest state bank, which federal prosecutors in October charged with helping Iran evade sanctions. Trump’s acquiescence in Erdogan’s tireless efforts to shield the Turkish bank and its accomplices from legal action remains sharply at odds with the U.S. president’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran.

The Halkbank saga goes back to Obama-era sanctions against Iran and the Turkish lender’s role — with Erdogan’s approval — in helping Tehran illicitly transfer tens of billions of dollars, as part of one of the biggest sanctions-evasion schemes in history. U.S. authorities arrested Reza Zarrab, the Iranian-Turkish ringleader of the conspiracy in March 2016, along with Mehmet Hakan Atilla, Halkbank’s deputy general manager, in March 2017, for their respective roles in the scheme.

Zarrab then turned state’s witness in the high-profile Manhattan case that led to Atilla’s conviction in January 2018 for his participation in a “scheme to violate U.S. economic sanctions imposed on the Islamic Republic of Iran.” Attila received 32 months in prison, a ruling a federal appeals panel upheld on July 20. Halkbank, charged for the same scheme in October 2019, pleaded not guilty in a court in the Southern District of New York on March 31 and has moved for the recusal of the judge overseeing the case.

Related: Trump’s Gifts to Turkey Repeat Mistakes and Set Bad Precedents
Related: How Do You Solve a Problem Like Ankara?

Bolton’s book paints the Halkbank case as Erdogan’s obsession, a “favorite subject, frequently discussed with Trump.” According to Bolton, Erdogan even brought Trump a “memo by the law firm representing Halkbank, which Trump did nothing more than flip through before declaring he believed Halkbank was totally innocent of violating U.S. Iran sanctions.”

Erdogan and Zarrab used other channels to meddle in the case as well. In the fall of 2017, Rudolph W. Giuliani and former Attorney General Michael Mukasey reportedly pressed Trump and then-Secretary of State Rex Tillerson to arrange a prisoner swap with Turkey. Retained by Zarrab, Giuliani and Mukasey had met with Erdogan in February 2017, but told the court two months later that they were seeking a “diplomatic solution.” This turned out to be a proposal to exchange Zarrab for U.S. Pastor Andrew Brunson, who was detained by Turkey in October 2016 on trumped-up charges of terrorism, espionage, and coup plotting.

For Erdogan, the case is personal. A 2013 Turkish graft probe into Halkbank’s sanctions evasion network revealed that key Erdogan aides, including his ministers of the interior and economy, were on Zarrab’s payroll. Zarrab had earlier pledged to then-Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad his “national and moral duty” to contribute to the “economic jihad.”

This was not only a corruption-cum-national security scandal — the economy minister alone received payments totaling some $50 million for serving Iranian interests — but also a political one. The case showed that despite Erdogan’s self-righteous rhetoric surrounding Syria’s civil war, including criticism of the West for inaction in the face of mass atrocities, Turkey — a NATO ally — was bankrolling the Iranian regime, the key military and financial patron for Syria’s Bashar al-Assad. Erdogan was saving both Tehran and Damascus from economic ruin at the height of U.S. sanctions, while shedding crocodile tears over Syrian victims.

Trump should have offered the Turkish president a much-needed lesson in the rule of law, separation of powers, and checks and balances — all in short supply in Erdogan’s Turkey. The U.S. president could have informed Erdogan about the BNP Paribas case, in which the U.S. Justice Department fined the French bank $8.9 billion for violating U.S. sanctions on Sudan, Cuba, and Iran. Many other U.S. and European banks have similarly accepted responsibility along with multi-billion fines.

Instead, according to Bolton, Trump told Erdogan, “he would take care of things,” and that “the Southern District prosecutors were not his people, but were Obama people, a problem that would be fixed.” For Turkey’s strongman, who routinely purges judges and prosecutors and makes cases magically disappear, this must have sounded like a done deal.

To Erdogan’s shock, U.S. prosecutors went forward with charges against Halkbank. The bank refused to recognize the court’s jurisdiction at first, but changed its mind when the prosecution asked for contempt fines, which could have totaled $1.8 billion after eight weeks.

More recently, following the release of Bolton’s book, Democratic Senator Ron Wyden, ranking member of the Senate Finance Committee, accused Trump of “interfer[ing] in a criminal investigation into the largest sanctions violations scheme in U.S. history as a favor to Turkish President Erdogan,” calling on Bolton to provide more information.

Erdogan must be watching in horror as a free press, independent courts, and effective legislative oversight click into gear. Erdogan remains a weak link in Trump’s Iran policy. The impunity Erdogan and Halkbank continue to enjoy will only embolden other sanctions-evasion networks, as well as their corrupt accomplices willing to bankroll Tehran’s nefarious activities in Syria and beyond.

[Don Giovanni]

This is the game they play. Everyone should see right through it. They really take the West for fools.

[Reaper]

Erdogan said the same 2 months ago.

http://m.bianet.org/english/politics...sident-erdogan

Before sanctions against Turkey, there needs to be an official cancellation of accession. Mitsotakis needs to push this line instead of his weak sanctions line.

[Don Giovanni]

Edit: This story has denied by Greek officials and is considered Turkish propaganda!

Apparently Greece has agreed to a deal to buy 50 Turkish-made drones. It seems Mitsotakis wants things to remain cool at least until the end of the summer.

[Don Giovanni]

Putin to put pressure on Turkey to ease off...

[Don Giovanni]

This is coming on the heels of Turkey now stating they are ready to work with the US and willingness to gain possible entry to the EU:

https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/me...inister-156963

And as their currency faces the prospect of heightened risks for inflation:

https://www.thechronicleherald.ca/bu...turkey-479239/

[Reaper]

Turkey invading Egypt's EEZ and Egypt is angry.

https://www.almasdarnews.com/article...mediterranean/

[Don Giovanni]

This piece is written by Alexandros Diakopoulos, the national security adviser to the prime minister.

[Don Giovanni]

And while a precarious balance had returned in the subsequent few days, the lira resumed its gradual drift lower in what many saw an ominous deja vu of what happened in the summer of 2018 when the lira plunged only to see the central bank hike funding costs in an attempt to crush shorts.

Needless to say, for Turkey to resort to such draconian "Plan Z" measures where it effectively nationalizes the FX market, it means that its economy is on the verge of collapse, a view reaffirmed overnight by the FT which writes that Turkey's tourism sector - a key source of economic growth - continues to reel due to convid.

it appears that Turkey is running out of reserves to sell and "control" the lira, and instead it is resorting to the bazooka approach, one which it can use to nuke the occasional short here and there, but which in the longer run will cripple the Turkish economy, and merely accelerate its downfall.

If this keeps up, the Turkish economy will be in free fall. They can't fight off economic forces like this for much longer.

[Don Giovanni]

The Turkish lira may be on the verge of a major collapse...

And now, it appears that Turkey is running out of reserves to sell and "control" the lira, and instead it is resorting to the bazooka approach, one which it can use to nuke the occasional short here and there, but which in the longer run will cripple the Turkish economy, and merely accelerate its downfall.

And sure enough, after the lira briefly strengthened in the spot market on Tuesday - as a result of record surge in overnight rates - it has promptly plunged to a new record low again suggesting that it is no longer shorts that are in the driver's seat, that Turkey's panicked attempt to punish them will have little impact on the continued decline in the currency, and that a full blown currency crisis in Turkey may be about to hit.

[Don Giovanni]

It should be noted that Moore who heads MI6 in the UK, Haspel who heads the CIA, and Emie who heads France's security services have all been stationed in Turkey at some point in the past 20 years and all know to speak some level of Turkish. This is a double-edged sword that can cut either way.