Turkey

[Filikieteria1821]

After the EEZ agreement with Egypt, Erdogan has ordered the mass mobilization of Turkish naval assets (rumored to be anywhere from 14-20 ships).

Furthermore, the Oruc Reis has turned off its transponder and the two support ships have done the same.

The Navtex is between Rhodes/Kastelorizo and it is very possible we see some fireworks tomorrow.

May God protect our countrymen/women during these times because I believe Turkey is being cornered and Erdogan does not have many cards to play.

[Reaper]

I think Greece will allow the drilling. Erdogan has called Mitsotakis' bluff. ND, like PASOK and SYRIZA before them will not fire on Turkish invaders, no matter what. Greek sovreignty will not be defended with Greek lives no matter what. Just read Mitsotakis has informed the EU and NATO of the drilling. That is the tactic he will follow and the Turks are relying on that pathetic tactic too.

[Don Giovanni]

That Egypt agreement showed a willingness to defend our rights to the fullest in countering Turkish claims. It was the right stance. If the Turks see that as an excuse to disband talks, good. The dialog was pointless and this was clear to all from before. Let them play aggressor while crying foul.

I don't expect much to be accomplished through any further diplomacy beyond what has already been achieved. I don't think the US nor Europe is willing to upset the balance enough to push the Turks into the grasp of Putin and China, but there is no love for Erdogan.

Practically speaking, it's going to take some very brave men to confront the Turks. We need to put our skin in the game and let things fall as they may. We need to show our resolve and let them play their games.

Mitsotakis may wait until after the summer season to respond, but my expectations remain the same. In the end, I don't expect anyone to get the oil. The question is, how many men on both sides must needlessly die to prove this point? That's up to Erdogan.

[Reaper]

Erdogan is willing to sacrifice men and has done in Idlib. The question is whether Greece believes in defending its sovreinty.

[Don Giovanni]

No doubts there, he's willing to use his own people as pawns, but he thinks we Greeks are too weak to challenge him. For him, the only thing that matters is projecting power.

We can't let Turkey impose themselves over us and the rest of the region. That's what this fight is really about. This is a country that uses refugees as pawns to blackmail Europe for money in the billions. That's enough reason for anyone to grasp why we can't permit Turkey to think they can act as they please and bend the region to their will.

[Reaper]

Well this sea is de factoTurkish. Greek navy instructed to watch and complain. Erdogan taking pictures of his boats in Greek seas to show the world precedent. Well done Mitsotakis, the sea is de facto Turkish now.

https://www.tovima.gr/2020/08/11/pol...o-kastelorizo/

Dora's policy of complaints and not action, a policy she explains to the media every week, has given away 1000s of square miles of formerly Greek sovreign territority to the Turks for free. What a strange day for Greece the day she entered politics. The Turks could not have put a better plant.

Oh well, we just have to accept the Turks are smarter than modern Greeks. Well played Erdogan.

[Reaper]

Turks now doing live fire exercises south of Kastelerizo.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/polit...s-kastellorizo

Greece's shelf now a myth. Even Syriza amazed Mitsotakis is allowing this to happen..

[Don Giovanni]

It looks like Mitsotakis is making one last push with the EU asking for an emergency meeting with the foreign affairs council. I think little to nothing will come of it. The reality is we need to respond militarily.

[Don Giovanni]

[Brklyngrk]

He is trying to provoke us to attack them. Once we do, he will be the victim and he will " be forced to defend himself". He may even ask NATO to help..lol

[Reaper]

Well I called it.

When a nation, any nation, knows that its neighbour does not value its sovereignty enough to defend it, it is over.

Erdogan - I am amazed he waited this long to do this. He now knows that the Greek airforce will never shoot down a Turkish jet violating Greek airspace and now he knows the same concerning the Greek navy and Greek waters. As a neutral, I think the country that wants land the most should have it. If Greece wont defend its land and seas, I think it is fair to let a country have it that will. It adds stability to the region. Grey zones don't. I actually believe now Greece is a danger to the Aegean simply because of its bluffing and the uncertainty that causes. Greece's hesitation to defend its EEZ is a destabilising factor - regardless of what Turkey does in other nations. Of course Turkey is aggressive and hungry for land, but no one in real politik cares about that. It is about outcomes, not idealism.

Erdogan has proved that the Greek airforce and navy is simply there for show. He knows Greece's only strategy is to complain to the EU/NATO/UN etc. He knows the Greek orders are NEVER to fire upon a Turkish vessel, whatever they do over Greek air and sea. It probably took Erdogan a good 10 years to understand the Greek mindset, hence the delay. I wager he could not even understand the psyche of not wanting to defend your land/sea and that baffled him. Even Armenians defend their borders. He probably imagined Greece was double bluffing - trying to trick Turkey into a conflict by acting weak. Now he knows that was not the case and that Greece is genuinely weak and lost ideologically. The Greek leadership is the same Greek local pashas of 18th century Greece who worked for the Ottomans. Always openly complaining to appease local Christians, but never stopping Ottoman expansion.

Erdogan is now drawing up plans to explore deep inside the Greek Aegean. This is the correct move from a neutral's point of view. He will most likely start next month - again the correct decision according to real politik. Greece's best hope? A coup based on defending borders. However reading what the Greek generals have been saying lately, they are even more afraid of the Turks than the politicians. I have never seen a bunch of generals so eager not to defend what used to be considered sovereign territory (well sovereign up until yesterday).

Greece will try and spin this the way it does everything since 1922. 'We won because we didn't fight! We are heroes! OK, we lost land/sea/respect/sovereignty - but we did not fire a shot! That is what Erdogan wanted! Us to fire a shot so he could kill all Greeks! But we didn't fire a shot, so we tricked him and won... a moral victory.. or something like that... either way, we are clever and there was no other option..' The cliche of the nerd taking pleasure in the fact that the bully forgot to check all his pockets when stealing his lunch money and missed the nerd's candy.. a pathetic image but one that the Greek media champion.

It is hard to respect a nation that doesn't respect itself, something our forefathers knew when they left Hellas.

[Brklyngrk]

Turkey backed down. If Greece attacked, there would be an all out war and an excuse to act in self defense. Turkey did nothing in those waters but zig zag. We are being calculated about this. We had called for a EU meeting this morning before Turkey backed down realizing they would not get away with it. I agree we need to have red lines, but we can't get caught up in their games. If they would have started drilling, then fire. At this point, he looks like an idiot while Mistotakis is consolidating support. I do believe, we will push back when we have to.

[Don Giovanni]

Erdogan's trying to show he can send in ships without anything to stop him, that we don't have the military might and the will to challenge his claim that these are Turkish waters.

We have to demonstrate our readiness and that we have the will. It's one thing to attack, another to send ships and put our forces into a position where the Turks will see we can respond. If that risks an incident, then we have to take that risk. Failing to do that sends the wrong signal, not only to Turkey, but other countries. Everyone has to understand how easily a war could ignite between us and the Turks.

Diplomacy alone will not solve our problems. No one should accept the idea that Germany is on our side or a reasonable mediator. They share stronger interests with the Turks than us. The Germans see the French, our closest ally in confronting the Turks, as rivals of theirs.

The fact Erdogan backed down suggests he feels Germany and others, excluding the French, will impress upon us to find a compromise suited to his goals. There should be no compromise. We need to let this drag out and let Erdogan sink with his ambitions.

If we don't have the will to confront and challenge Erdogan's Turkey now, it will only embolden him. We have to make it clear, only a Turkey that shares European values, not the Islamist one of Erdogan that turned a famous Christian cathedral from a museum into a mosque, can be negotiated with. With Erdogan's Turkey there is no compromise. This should be obvious by now with the outcome of the migrant deal.

[Reaper]

When he sends the ships deep into the Aegean next month, that will be a watershed moment. A Greek government official stated today, under no conditions can Greece fire upon a exploration vessel. Music to the Turkish ears. They are rolling back the centuries.

[Don Giovanni]

That to me sounds like a preemptive statement to counter the possibility of a Turkish false flag and a fog of war incident. It also signals that Greece will indeed send ships into areas Turkey hopes to contest.

The facts are Turkey does want to draw us into an incident. That's because should matters go to the Hague, Greece would likely win in court. The law favors us. They also believe we don't have the will to challenge them. From the Turkish perspective a military conflict is a gamble that could contrive some legitimacy to their claims, but it may very well blow up their own faces just the same. That doesn't mean we should not confront them militarily or fire at their warships or whatever vessels they may send, even if we say we won't. There are grounds that give us a right to engage them and still have the law, the geopolitical support on our side.