Turkey

[aek66]

not bad at all.

- one israeli expert says turkey is the 'architect' of the alliance of mediterranean nations against it.

- another says that the farcical turkey-libya EEZ deal could possible 'interfere' with israel transporting gas to europe. the israelis purposely involved american energy companies to get shielded by the american military for american strategic interests.

it appears as though israel has come to a realization that it is willing to be 'friends' with greece and cyprus, due to turkey. the rest is up to greece, to take the relationship to whatever higher level...as much as greek domestic politics allows.

[Don Giovanni]

The head of Mossad is being quoted left and right that he sees Turkey as a bigger threat than Iran. He's undoubtedly correct. Turkey is better poised to support the kind of ambitions Iran harbors. If the Americans persist in thinking of the Turks as a bulwark against Russia, Israeli and regional concerns may not be as important a factor. The US continues to operate in the sense that they can work things out with Erdogan, but it's clear what Biden said back in December 2019 is true, Erdogan has to be defeated for things to work as well as anyone can realistically hope between the West and Turkey. I think at a certain level the US still think this way, but there are others who are just as eager to use ISIS to defeat Assad as they are eager to use Erdogan for the exact same purposes, something we are now seeing play out in Syria and Libya. And I fear these same forces think they can use Turkey for the same purposes against China, not just Russia.

I think the piece below is worth a read.

The Suga plan was prepared by by Navy Col. Gürdeniz, the then-head of the Naval Forces Command Planning Project Department, on January 10, 2003 and had the goal of deliberately creating a hostile situation with Greece in the Aegean Sea that would bring the two countries to the verge of war. The plan was signed by Navy Commander Adm. Özden Örnek on February 3, 2003 and documents found that the plan was actually put partially into motion.

To escalate hostilities, Turkey planned to conduct military operations as close to the Greek islands as possible.

To escalate tensions, Turkish fishermen were to be used as “pawns” while simultaneously the Turkish coastguard would harass Greek fishermen. In addition, the Turkish navy and helicopters would violate Greek sovereign waters and airspace, and “Greek boats would be monitored by the Turkish coast guard, which would intercept them when necessary.”

These are the same exact tactics that the Erdoğan regime uses today, suggesting that the Suga plan, drawn up in 2003, is currently being used by Turkey to escalate tensions with Greece.

Nordic Monitor concluded that “Gürdeniz, the author of Suga, was forced into retirement in August 2012 after his arrest in February of the same year. He is one of the convicted felons who was released by the Erdoğan government. He has been appearing on pro-government networks these days, preaching a hawkish line and promoting the idea that Turkey should engage militarily with Greece. In the meantime, moves similar to those mentioned in the Suga plan were being made by Turkey, suggesting that Turkey had actually revisited and updated the plan to achieve the political goals pursued by both Erdoğan’s Islamists and his partner neo-nationalists, who jointly run the Turkish military, the police and intelligence services in today’s Turkey.”

[Filikieteria1821]

Turkey announced an extension of its navtex for exploration with the oruc reiss in response to Greece's live fire Navtex announcement. Erdogan's speech today essentially said from here on out, Greece is responsible for any bad developments in the region and that Greece will have no partners going forward and will not be able to carry out it's EEZ/Continental shelf aspirations.

Greece will be holding a joint military exercise from August 25-28
with Cyprus, France, Italy and the UAE.

To me Erdogan has gone into full war mode as he is trying to play the blame game for whatever armed conflict starts from here on out.

News has come out that both the UK and Spain have offered Greece a few different ship options in order to bolster its armed forces. France has come out and said it will send another 2 naval vessels to the region.

Greece is also currently examining the possibility of extending its EEZ from the islands from 6 to 12.

I think we are getting dangerously close to a full blown military conflict because no amount of dialogue, much to Germany's displeasure, will solve the differences between Greece and Turkey. Greece has pumped a lot of diplomatic effort into international law and international groups such as the UN, NATO, EU, while Turkey wants to sit Greece down at the table and run off a list of problems it has with Greece. We are going to see fireworks sooner rather than later and the US' absence in all of this is deafening.

It's ok though, Trump will continue to tell everyone that he has a great relationship with Erdogan and that Erdogan only listens to him.

If that's the case, then the aggressive rhetoric and actions coming from Erdogan does not speak highly of Trump's foreign policy, nor has he told Erdogan to cut the bullshit.

[Don Giovanni]

I wish Mitsotakis spent more time painting Erdogan for what he is. Mitsotakis has to stop playing nice. Erdogan is an Islamist through and through, on par with the Iranian clerics. We can't negotiate with him and every effort must be taken to contain his ambitions.

Also, I'm beginning to think the Turks are lying about what they found in the Black Sea. They were being overly optimistic with their claims, no doubt, and it's possible they have grossly exaggerated what they found.

Trump is too busy trying to bring Iran to heel. Putin tried and failed to get him to a summit to diffuse the escalating tensions: Trump ignored his request. He's dangerously deluded when it comes to dealing with Iran. He won't bring them back to the table to negotiate, as much as he likes to think. Instead he's going to finally push them over the edge into a war. Obama's approach, despite it's flaws, stood to be more effective in containing Iranian ambitions than anything Trump has done vis-a-vis Iran.

[tantra]

he's going all in

[Don Giovanni]

The condemnation by the State Department follows remarks by President Trump at the Republican National Convention praising Erdoğan for the release of American pastor Andrew Brunson from a Turkish prison in 2018.

Trump didn't exactly lavish praise on Erdogan, but his tone was too positive and he takes too much pride in the fact that he's one of the few people who can get along with Erdogan.

[aek66]

trump said erdogan was a good guy and the turkish people are good people. if so, then why was this american considered a 'hostage' - being held against his will as a 'guest' of the turkish govt?? i hope he wins, but he is a paliatso.

he can have a warm relationship with him, just like falwell jr. and the 'pool boy'. the state dept. and the pentagon have their own strategies they formulate and plan..and trump can't turn them upside down on a whim. that is the saving grace of the usa, and greece, for that matter. the greeks are learning the hard way that russia operates in the same manner - all great powers do.

[JVC]

Trump didn't exactly lavish praise on Erdogan, but his tone was too positive and he takes too much pride in the fact that he's one of the few people who can get along with Erdogan.

In the end it will probably not matter....Israel is starting to feel threatened from this recent aggressive behavior from Turkey. Erdogan has stated many times that he will eventually liberate Israel. Also all the offshore gas and oil fields in the Eastern Mediterranean, Israel,Cyprus, Greece are owned by American companies mainly Exxon....the countries mentioned including us will get a percentage. That said I can't see Turkey being allowed to be the top force in the area and controlling future plans. I was watching Israeli special on their news channel explaining all of this. In the end they feel the lucky country in all of this will be Greece....basically Greece is making friends in all of the region, and showing we can be trusted.

[Don Giovanni]

The problem is Trump can turn things upside down on a whim, like we saw with the Kurds and the killing of Soleimani. I do think the Pentagon and State Department could play a role in keeping him a little more in line, but we've seen the effect once before of what a phone call between Trump and Erdogan can have.

The Turks saw Libya, they saw Syria, and they imagined the same would happen to them. They saw the "color revolution" style protests that gripped their country not too long ago, the toll of the economic damage associated with it. The specter of the Sevres treaty still haunts them and remains as strong a psychological wound as ever.

Erdogan's paranoia and ambitions, however, only serve to remind everyone why exactly these kind of efforts are made in the first place: to keep the Turks on a leash and to prevent them from acting out as a destabilizing force in the world. The Turks are making a mistake believing the world is out to get them.

[Don Giovanni]

Greek parliament is submitting a bill to this effect as agreed with Italy. It paves the road for Greece to do the same in the Aegean someday soon. It's high time we did, Turks be damned.

[tantra]

"“Greece, which is unworthy of even the Byzantine legacy, refuses to take lessons from history and acts like a fake bully in the Mediterranean,” Erdogan added, according to the report."



something is going to happen

[Don Giovanni]

And so the game begins...

[tantra]

greece is also changing the territorial waters from 6 to 12 miles

this is in the ionian for now, it feels like they want to make erdogan sweat a bit

[Reaper]

greece is also changing the territorial waters from 6 to 12 miles

this is in the ionian for now, it feels like they want to make erdogan sweat a bit

Absurd not to inclyde the Cyclades in the 12 mile extension.

[Filikieteria1821]

Two very serious incidents happened yesterday in a migrant rescue operation near Halki.

A turkish coast guard vessel tried ramming a Greek vessel and another turkish vessel aimed its lasers towards a Greek navy helicopter in an effort to blind the personnel and cause an accident.

Turkey is trying to trip Greece into a conflict....Greece needs to stay the course and use the very limited time left to ensure that we are ready. I believe Turkey will eventually do something, specifically before the US presidential race.

As for the extension of territorial waters from 6 to 12, it's about damn time, now let's do it in the aegean

[Don Giovanni]

It's good to hear Erdogan proclaim he will never compromise, bringing an effective end to the negotiation charade. It's now or never for our "allies" to speak clearly on where they stand on this issue. No more of this humpty-dumpty nonsense because there will be war if they keep they thinking they can still sit on the fence at this point.

Absurd not to inclyde the Cyclades in the 12 mile extension.

They're setting the stage to do this though by taking this step. It's a start at least. I think once we get the right backup we need, we're going to finally tell the Turks where to shove their casus belli.

Filikieteria1821

No doubts about it. The Turks need an armed conflict to achieve what they want. At the Hague they know they have little chance and the idea they can get an international arbiter of another kind is something we cannot permit.