Turkey

[aek66]

there hasn't been such support for greece for a greek geopolitical issue since the early fyrom days. greece squandered that support by doing nothing..and gradually, it slipped away.

can we squander this? yes. we can thank the french for this burst of support. we all know where germany's feelings are, but the french have forced reality down their throats (for now). hey, we both run the EU now and the EU can unravel if we ignore the sovereign rights of an EU member.

in my opinion, greece and cyprus need to give turkey a date to evacuate from greek/cypriot waters/never return and in a show of good faith, greece/france/cyprus/uae immediately call off all naval/air exercises.

a russian military publication laid out numbers/quality of weapons and systems and a potential scenario if war breaks out and greece does get military backing from france and egypt.

any war in the sea and air over greece and in the aegean/eastern med will be won by greece/france/cyprus/egypt. they talk up the capabilities of their s-400 missile system and tell us that 'allied' (greece/france/egypt) strikes on turkish soil would be devastating for the allies..but gave us the number of s-400 missiles (about 120 missiles) the turks possess, which is less than the total number of modern fighters the allies possess.

the russians downplay any war on the ground (thraki) and say that both turkey and greece possess more tanks and better artillery systems than the french army.

the russians also say that the greeks and cypriots are 'guaranteed' to eliminate the turkish rep. of n. cyprus if there is that 'allied' coalition, while conversely, the rep. of cyprus may disappear if the war is solely turkey x greece.

i believe all those scenarios, though, i'm afraid that turkey will launch quick naval invasions of various islands and france and egypt will have to be willing to sacrifice their citizens to win those greek islands back.

we don't want war, but, we need to be prepared for all scenarios.

[Don Giovanni]

At least the sanctions are now on the table.

[Reaper]

Are the EU still unwilling to welcome the Greece - Egypt agreement?

[Brklyngrk]

They gave Turkey a month to comply or sanctions will take place that will cripple their economy. The sanctions are significant and far reaching and will be put in place if by the next EU meeting Turkey does not back down. France gave red lines to Erdogan in the Aegean as well saying that they are in it for the long term. What must be especially frustrating to him is France's military arrangement in Cyprus. Turkey called them out saying that they have no right there as they are not a guarantor.

[aek66]

France gave red lines to Erdogan in the Aegean as well saying that they are in it for the long term. What must be especially frustrating to him is France's military arrangement in Cyprus. Turkey called them out saying that they have no right there as they are not a guarantor.

very heartening words from france, but, a new president in the next election or if macron wins again.....we may see a french president not so hawkish on the greece side.

i heard that greece is considering 'giving' france a naval/air base in the aegean...rumors are it's the island leros. former italian deep water main port in the aegean during il duce's days. a wise gesture, if not a gesture of graciousness, for sure.

[Brklyngrk]

Also read that Germany has been coming around to France's position. Turkey stated that Greece has territorial ambitions because it increased it's water borders on the Ionian side from 6 to 12. If that is not an indication of war, what is. Very crazy perspective.

[Don Giovanni]

Are the EU still unwilling to welcome the Greece - Egypt agreement?

I don't believe they ever took an official position on it, but privately Spain's Borell all but acknowledged it as an unhelpful move.

[Don Giovanni]

aek66

I imagine that in France things are byzantine enough so that the foreign policy establishment mainly sets the agenda (which is pretty much true of almost any nation state). In saying that, much comes down to the mood of the French public and if they have an appetite for these things.

That mood seemed to have altered drastically after the 2015 Islamic State terror attack in Paris. The attacks were carried out by Syrians "refugees" only months after hordes of migrants flooded Europe in 2015. Also, there was 2016 Bastille Day attack. I can't even imagine the women and children, families, mowed down, over 80 dead, nearly 500 injured. Horrifying! These attacks resulted in a big rise of Legionnaire enlistees.

Add to that the suspicion Turkey was harboring Islamic State elements. An American official, in the Washington Post, all but accused Turkey of protecting al-Baghdadi given he was discovered in an area protected by Turkish military outposts in Syria. And to add further insult to injury, there was that "friendly" game of soccer Greece played a little after the 2015 Paris attack. The Turkish fans, numbering in the tens of thousands, booed the minute of silence for the victims. The Turkish people have shown support for these evil acts against France.

I also think the French can relate to us on another touchy subject: our churches no longer sanctuaries of peace. Our churches are being converted into mosques, while theirs are being burnt down. Just last month, a Muslim asylum seeker from Rwanda admitted to setting ablaze another historical cathedral in Nantes. Questions remain about who or what started the fire at the Notre-Dame cathedral, but there are suspicions in France that Muslims were responsible. There was also a Normandy priest who was beheaded in church during a morning service back in 2016.

All of this remains firmly imprinted on the psyche of the French people. Tying it to the growing Turkish threat is possible.

[Reaper]

Greece again into the trap. Turkey states today any 12 miles extension in the aegean is causi belli. Greece should have done a 12 eez in the cyclades. The red line was always the dodecanese.

[Don Giovanni]

This may give us a clue as to what the EU meant by negotiation:

“As well as sticks [sanctions], there will be carrots too to get Ankara to engage seriously in dialogue. These carrots could be progress on a new customs union and more money for the refugee program,” the person said under condition of anonymity. [Reuters]

That should be the extent of negotiation I would hope, but with carrots like that, we'll need strong sticks.

[Brklyngrk]

Apparently Greece is buying 18 planes from France, the Rafale jet fighters. Terms are being negotiated. I guess it takes an imminent war to get Greece to upgrade its military.

[Don Giovanni]

It takes a punch to the nose before we realize we're in a fight.

[aek66]

from what i read..negotiating the purchase of 10 rafales and france will 'gift' greece with 8 rafales that were used in libya. not sure which variant of rafale.

[tantra]

[Don Giovanni]

The New York Times lets Erdogan write op-eds, but won't even give the same courtesy to Tom Cotton, a Republican Senator because he said Trump should send in the military to dissuade rioting.

They reported Greece was taking migrants from camps and dumping them into sea. And their source? The Turkish coast guard, people smugglers, and the people they smuggle!

Greek Minister for Immigration and Asylum Notis Mitarachi has responded to allegations about Greek pushbacks of asylum seekers at sea, saying that the reports were “the result of propaganda by illegal smuggling networks who are losing tens of millions of euros.”

What Greece is facing is jihad and the New Yorks Times would do well to report that fact, but why should I expect any different? They covered up the fact Ambassador Stevens was killed in a terrorist attack. The paper of record has become the paper of jihadist and leftist cover-ups.

[Don Giovanni]

“Recently, German Foreign Minister Haiko Maas made efforts to weaken threatening European sanctions against Turkey. He had previously angered Turkey by expressing his solidarity with Greece. Even US President Trump, in consultation with Berlin, had mediated in Athens and Ankara. A rare proof of classic diplomacy, but it did not work,” Süddeutsche Zeitung wrote.

There is obviously a much bigger problem behind the bilateral conflict.

The most important issue in Ankara is the modernization and renegotiation of the customs union with the EU and visa facilitation,” the newspaper explained, adding that “Both are issues of major importance to the Turkish economy, which have been frozen following the numerous conflicts between Ankara and the EU.”

[aek66]

erdogan tells us today that greece 'can't fight it's way out of a paper bag'.

good show. greece is a nation that has weapons that can destroy turkish ships and planes, unlike the kurds, syrians and libyans. of course greece is not capable of pushing the turks back into asia, but greece can bloody turkey's nose and that scares erdogan. erdogan took a gambit; why not after spending for the development and procuring of weapons and equipment (especially naval)? the gambit has failed as greece has lined up 'allies' that are alarmed by turkish aggression and lawlessness...and any fighting with greece-france-potentially others would see the turkish navy destroyed and it's air force decimated. humiliation and destruction, enough to see him removed.

the more erdogan makes ridiculous statements, the more i believe he will back down and his exit strategy is to make fun of greece and france for turkish domestic consumption.

in the meantime, purchase the rafales and 'give' france a base in the aegean and turkey will be stymied and tucked away into a paper bag.