Turkish Defence Minister wants Greece and Armenia to be removed.

[Reaper]

[Filikieteria1821]

Saw this on twitter earlier, and it's no surprise that these are the plans, in fact I'd argue the above is mild compared to what I had envisioned. I ultimately think the above is what they feel is realistic. Also note, Kastelorizo is completely gone from this map and this could be because of how small it is, or because the map shows the turks owning the dodecanisa as well as other aegean islands, and all of cyprus, doing away with the link up between Greece and Cyprus' EEZ.

Greek politicians wasted all these years blaming the crisis for the degradation of the armed forces but I would be shocked if Turkey didn't launch an armed effort to completely control Cyprus and some of the aegean by 2023.

Like I said in the Syria thread, Turkey is currently embarking on its first phase of expansion and ethnic cleansing. The second and third phase will have GC's and Greeks as the main targets. Greece has 2-3 years max to go on a spree of modernizing and buying as much military equipment as possible.

The purchase of 2 belh@arra frigates although great, will not have an immediate effect on Greece's short term needs.

Yesterday, Panagiotopoulos (Greece's Defense Minister) stated that there is a possibility of Greece making it's way into the f35 program. I'll believe it when I see it, but if Greece manages to pull that off, it would be an incredible feat. But f35 will not be enough. The biggest need is the upgrade of the greek navy and I do believe Greece needs to look to find a way to address their short term ship needs.

Aside from the economy, Mitsotakis needs to make his tenure as PM entirely about upgrading the armed forces. It's imperative he starts with pumping a lot of research and development funds into Greece's homegrown military industry

[Reaper]

Aside from the economy, Mitsotakis needs to make his tenure as PM entirely about upgrading the armed forces. It's imperative he starts with pumping a lot of research and development funds into Greece's homegrown military industry

I believe Greece makes some of its weapons correct?

[Filikieteria1821]

It does, but not nearly enough. Right now, Turkey's homegrown arms industry is booming and that has created a gap in the power balance.

Greece can and should make it it's mission to balance, at least for the time being, purchasing from outside, but also signing agreements that would bring the know how, or actual building to greece. The f16 viper upgrades will be done in Greece if memory serves me correct.

Would be even better if the f35 followed suit

[ThrylosG7]

It does, but not nearly enough. Right now, Turkey's homegrown arms industry is booming and that has created a gap in the power balance.

Greece can and should make it it's mission to balance, at least for the time being, purchasing from outside, but also signing agreements that would bring the know how, or actual building to greece. The f16 viper upgrades will be done in Greece if memory serves me correct.

Would be even better if the f35 followed suit

Prior to he financial crisis they assembled the Leo2 tanks in Greece except for the canon and some of the tech which the Germans didnt want to share how its done. The famous Type 214 subs were also built in Greece - after the buoyancy issues were sorted out. Im not up to speed as to what has happened in the last 4 or 5 years to be honest - your right about the F16 upgrade from what I remember reading but certainly prior to 2010 a lot of Military purchases were done under license to build or assemble in Greece , many also substituted Greek parts where possible for things like optics , communication systems, sensors - basically the non essential secret stuff .

Here is something you guys might find interesting

The Hellenic Defence Industry catalogue of 2018 - it lists all the HDF companies, what they make , who they sell to and how much turn over they do - looking at the numbers for Defence industry its a pittance.

http://www.gdaee.mil.gr/images/PDF/HELDIC%202018.pdf

[ThrylosG7]

Its astounding that this doesnt get more coverage - I love how its just ignored by everyone

[Don Giovanni]

From the few articles I read, it's supposedly a fan page of the minister, not something posted by the minister himself. This page has stirred controversy in the past.

[Filikieteria1821]

Even if it is a fan page, Erdogan himself clowned Tsipras in Greece and told him, on national television that he wants to re-work the treaty of lauseanne. NATO, EU, or whatever else that may seem like a hinderance to Turkey, is not.

Erdogan's main plan is to eventually launch an invasion of the aegean islands to do away with "grey zones" and to settle the EEZ dispute. There's a reason why Turkey doesn't want to go to international court over the issue.

[Don Giovanni]

I think Erdogan plays the long game. He sees the outflow of Muslims settling into Europe and the West, including the Greek islands, and in that time he will look to establish more and more influence over the Muslim world.

Unless there's an outbreak of world war, I think it's difficult for him to launch any invasion of Greece and Cyprus like he has done in Syria. To do would lead to an international response against the Turks and I think even the Russians would stand against them. Only China and Qatar would ever look at backing them.

For the most part, Erdogan is trying to look and act tough because politically it's his bread and butter to make himself appear like the only leader who can defend Turkey against the Western powers.

The Turks are choosing to go the way of the Islamists and doing so means rooting themselves in the same medieval mindset that has kept the Middle East so backwards. If they want to go the way of Iran and burden themselves with economically crippling sanctions, that's their prerogative and does them great harm in the long run.

I'm with you that Greece must rebuild her military. We need the resources to defend ourselves and our territory.

I'm with you that Greece must urgently rebuild her military. We need a strong military that can act to defend Greece, but the threat of Turkish invasion isn't an imminent danger.

[ThrylosG7]

Erdogan has to act belligerent - he has to create external threats- its the only way for him to stay in power - "Look at everyone trying to destroy us , only I can defend our country and stand up to them"

[Reaper]

I have watched Erdogan closely over the years. Read his speeches etc - watched his press conferences.

I don't doubt for one second he is trying to re-establish the Ottoman Empire and I am not just talking about him pushing through universal school classes in Ottoman Turkish. He genuinely believes that Turkey should be head of the Sunni world like it was pre 1920s. He genuinely believes Greece, Armenia and Syria should be Turkish possessions - and what is more, so do most those who vote for him.

However, part of his success is down to Greece. To create a bully you always need a victim. We helped him create grey zones. We helped him grow in strength by reporting him to teacher (EU) who promptly told us to sort it out amongst ourselves. We have helped in the growth of Neo Ottoman Turkey through weakness. The very first Turkish jet that flew directly over Greek land mass should have been shot down the way they would do to us - or even Russia. By playing with Turkey, we increased their strength.

[ThrylosG7]

I have watched Erdogan closely over the years. Read his speeches etc - watched his press conferences.

I don't doubt for one second he is trying to re-establish the Ottoman Empire and I am not just talking about him pushing through universal school classes in Ottoman Turkish. He genuinely believes that Turkey should be head of the Sunni world like it was pre 1920s. He genuinely believes Greece, Armenia and Syria should be Turkish possessions - and what is more, so so most those who vote for him.

However, part of his success is down to Greece. To create a bully you always need a victim. We helped him create grey zones. We helped him grow in strength by reporting him to teacher (EU) who promptly told us to sort it out amongst ourselves. We have helped in the growth of Neo Ottoman Turkey through weakness. The very first Turkish jet that flew directly over Greek land mass should have been shot down the way they would do to us - or even Russia. By playing with Turkey, we increased their strength.

I agree with everything that you say - I just want to add that the so called " grey zones" have been in place way before him as have the airspace violations etc ..What has coincided with Erdogans time in power is the rise of digital media and the Internet which has exposed the issue completely .

Finally this is a must read from Wiki leaks regarding the Airspace violations and how the issue is seen from both Greek and Turkish sides AND the discussions with the Americans...who it seems are trying to convince Greece to accept 6nm ..- Its clear that the Greek side does not have a fucking clue what they are entitled to or what the law is nor is the Greek government united on the issue . You talked about why Turkish planes are not being shot down ?? read the Wiki leaks that i sent a link to and you will find out - Also from an international law perspective its not as cut and dry as we have been told .

https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/05ATHENS1505_a.html

[Don Giovanni]

Good post.

Molyviatis emphasized that Turkey did not need to send 40 aircraft a day across the disputed airspace to make its political point; they could, he insisted, send one flight a week and accomplish the same purpose. If the Turks pursued a less inflammatory policy in the Aegean, he suggested, there would be much more sympathy for Turkey in Greece. 3. (C) Ambassador questioned whether Greece drew a fine enough distinction between Turkish airspace violations and Turkish non-notifications of the FIR, reminding Molyviatis that the U.S. did not file FIR notifications either. It was important for Greece to be on solid ground when it reckoned up the number of "violations." Molyviatis acknowledged that there was a legal difference between violations of the six-mile limit versus FIR notifications. He admitted that the Greek nouns for "violation" ("paraviasi," used for intrusions into national airspace) and "infringement" ("paravasi," used for flights in the Athens FIR) are nearly indistinguishable, even to Greeks. Ambassador suggested Greek credibility with partners would be helped if they made an issue only of Turkish violations with six nautical miles of Greek territory, where the numbers are much smaller and international law is clearer.

The Turkish government genuinely wanted to solve Aegean issues with Greece, he said, but was frustrated that its decision to notify NATO (and thus, effectively, Greece) of flights in the Athens FIR had yielded no positive response from Greece. Instead, the Greek Air Force used the information to intercept Turkish jets and the Greek government continued to attack these "FIR infringements" in the media and in discussions with other countries. Ankara was still mulling this policy change, Abaci emphasized, and had not discussed the matter with Greece. When pressed, Abaci (who will take over the Aegean air/sea portfolio at the Turkish MFA this fall) said he was not suggesting that the United States play a role in Aegean airspace issues or inform the Greek government of the possible change in Turkish policy.

In many ways, Greece has created the problem for iteslf by dramatizing the lack of FIR notice while pocketing the NATO flight plans. We will use the ammunition provided by these latest figures released by MOD to encourage the Greeks to ratchet down their rhetoric, focus on six-mile airspace violations, and look for ways to further Greece's long-term goal of improving ties with Turkey, rather than score short-term points in a no-win game.

It's the spirit in which Turkey acts that is the issue. And it's obvious NATO and the US don't wish to involve themselves and are willing to let the Turks act as they please because they need them more than they need us. That's what all of this comes down to.

[Reaper]

I agree with everything that you say - I just want to add that the so called " grey zones" have been in place way before him as have the airspace violations etc .

Oh yea, we were discussing these grey zones in the 90s and this all started in the 1970s. As each successive Greek Govt ignored the issue, the grey zones grew.

Also, the Turks have built mosques and Turkish universities across the Balkans and across the East. The one they built in Albania is the largest in the Balkans and right outside the Albanian parliament.

Greece makes Turkey stronger sadly. Unless we see a 360 change in tactics - the Turks will be at our door soon and I am not talking about the Dodecanese where they already are flying their bombers over greek heads daily..

[Filikieteria1821]

The grey zone issue is a culmination of the cyprus disaster, and subsequent greek governments inability to nip it in the ass before it exploded. Decade after decade it has persisted, going through stages of increase/decrease depending on how the president of turkey sees fit. We shouldn't allow these barbarians to dictate the terms of the aegean, rather we should be dictating what happens in the Aegean. Turkey has invested heavily in drones, news is Greece is worried...then where are Greek drones???

The Americans view the 6-12 issue as trivial, and IMO they look the other way because of the geography and because of how large Turkey is.

American foreign policy is incredibly outdated, and still holds true that somehow Turkey is an ally of the US. For you to be an ally of the US means you have to accept that the US, to some degree, decides how you operate in the world. What Turkey has begun doing is distancing themselves from that, while Erdogan carefully picks his spots and makes Trump look like a fool.

Greece's entire national perception has to change, but I'm afraid that the root of the cause is societal and in order to implement societal change, decades must pass. By then, I too think Turkey would have made too much headway militarily, and globally.

Curious, the Washington Post constantly gives Erdogan space to push his bullshit narratives, when was the last time a Greek government pushed a narrative in international media?

Greece can play the game, but for some reason do not. If you want the world to know the truth, to understand why things are the way they are, you need push education on the matters in other countries. If you asked people in the UK, Germany, US, etc no one would know that Turkey is dog shit. This also falls on the diaspora who is unified in loving Greece, but not unified or determined enough to push for recognition of the greek cause.