Turkey

[Don Giovanni]

Once again, the EU is showing a policy of appeasing Turkey as it fails to mention the non-EU member state as the aggressor state against Greece.

By making the standard call for good neighborly relations and the use of international law, the EU is demonstrating that it will do next to nothing to deal with Turkey’s aggression with Greece and Cyprus.

Although Greece has in recent times signed Exclusive Economic Zone deals with Italy and Egypt by referencing the United Nations Charter Law of the Sea, Turkey remains one of 15 countries in the whole world that refuses to sign or acknowledge it, bringing to question why the EU thinks Turkey would adhere to international law.

[tantra]

this is their end goal

[Reaper]

What is spectacular is that after all these years the Greeks still have no idea what a Turk is. They do not have the IQ to differentiate between a European (that cares about money, has nightmares about sanctions and wants a peaceful domestic policy) and an asiatic Turk (who doesn't give a shit if their economy is the shitter, doesn't care about sanctions etc - just wants to conquer new land).

The failure of the Greeks is 3 fold.

1/ They don't believe in defending sovereignty. Who ever the enemy is, Greece will always be in trouble because of this.

2/ They have no clue what a Turk is or what their motivations are - even at this stage.The media has been douped by Dora and friends to believe Turks care primarily about their economy.

3/ They have no idea why Europeans don't care about the Greek plight but base their defencive strategy on begging for sanctions against Turkey.

As I mature I can start to see the picture that there is something inbuilt in many Greeks (not all, but a majority) to concede land to turks - turks who are smart enough to out whit greeks. Reminds me of this boy I once saw play tennis. He could beat people a lot older than him simply because he was smarter. Didn't have their power or skill but he quickly worked out their weaknesses and would dispatch them easily. The older players would swear and get angry. I remember watching him beat the same people time after time and each time his opponents would not try something new, they continued to believe that their current tactics were their best shot. Greeks seem to have that mental block with Turks. I am not talking about the Greek peasant army that cleared the peloponnese of Turks and started the Greek revolution. I am talking about 'educated' Byzantine Greeks who begged foreign powers for 100 years to help them stop the Turks instead of building a robust army.

[Reaper]

Tsipras says what everyone is thinking:

"I asked from Mr. Mitsotakis to stop leaking non-existent arguments that the researches of the Turkish vessel are being cancelled or prevented by the noise of the nearby Turkish vessels. What concerns us is not the quality of the Turkish researches but the fact that Oruc Reis is violating our sovereign rights" said Tsipras.

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The narrative should be simple:

'The Turks are destabilising Greece, the EU and NATO. We will now have to defend our sovereignty as Europe will not due to investments in Turkey. To protect Greek citizens and EU citizens living within Greece, a 12 mile EEZ has been imposed on the entire Greek territory except near Turkish land where the difference is split.'

I would then start firing on the Ork Russ and cut its cables.

However, Greece wont do this. Greece is not a sovereign nation and does not believe in defending its sovereignty. So what we will see is more crisis talks, more angry notes and letters and more whining as 1000s of square miles becomes Turkish. Also the Greek media is helping the transition of land and sea to Turkey. To Vima and News24/7 downgrading all Aegean problems from their splash page just now:

[Reaper]

There is a Turkish finger in Greek Government:

[Brklyngrk]

Ultimately, if Turkey thought they had support from the EU or the US, they would have drilled. They know they do not so they are trying to get us into a conflict to show that we shot first and retaliate under self defense. The fact that they want talks now is because they know that they are looking like aggressors and are generally afraid of repercussions from the EU/US. So he will try something else. The deal with Egypt was a success, let's not kid ourselves. That is why he did what he did.

[Brklyngrk]

Also, France send some of its planes to the islands to show support.

[Don Giovanni]

I think Turkey knows too that in a case arbitrated at The Hague, we would likely have international law on our side in more respects than they would. That ties into the Egypt deal and why they want to muddy the waters with a military conflict. I wish NATO and the EU had more of our back because they are still trying to appease Erdogan at a time when he's becoming more and more vulnerable. In effect, they are playing a role in propping him up. But then again these organizations only exist as a response to the Soviets and don't seem to know how to respond effectively at anything else.

I won't go as far as you Reaper. I'm not opposed to sitting down with Turks and figuring out something that works. It just won't happen with Erdogan and his ilk. If we are to live with the Turks, they need to make serious commitments to our collective security and forego these suicidal ambitions. They've got two heads if they think we'll roll over to them, no matter the costs. We can't have a Turkey that can threaten to shut off the energy tap and flood the gates when it suits them. We can't have a Turkey that arms and funds jihadists. We can't afford to flinch. I hope they come to their senses and realize they can have a seat at the table, but I'm pessimistic as the majority of Turks do not think this way. Many suffer from a syndrome all to common in the Balkans, a delusional grandeur of their country's place in the world. Then there is their Islamism, another major problem that I can't see resolved even by secularism. Islam needs to make a lot of changes and secularism only a small part of that puzzle, not the final piece. It will probably take a civil war in Turkey before anything agreeable can be achieved with them.

[Reaper]

I think Turkey knows too that in a case arbitrated at The Hague, we would likely have international law on our side in more respects than they would. That ties into the Egypt deal and why they want to muddy the waters with a military conflict. I wish NATO and the EU had more of our back because they are still trying to appease Erdogan at a time when he's becoming more and more vulnerable. In effect, they are playing a role in propping him up. But then again these organizations only exist as a response to the Soviets and don't seem to know how to respond effectively at anything else.

The EU is a German lead project and very close with Russia - hence Nord stream II. Germany is defensive of Turkey because Germany is the single biggest foreign investor in Turkey and also houses over 4 million Turks. Business links with Turkey trump Greek sovereignty in the eyes of Germany/EU.

[Brklyngrk]

While that may be true, the winds are turning in Europe. If their is a war, where do you think all those refugees in Turkey will go with Greece not being able to defend its borders? Turkey has proven too erratic and not a dependable partner. Apparently he has blown off a few phone calls from Merkel already. His FM said that he wants this dispute to be settled with dialogue ensuring that everyone benefits. They flip flop from all out war to sitting down to talk. In the meanwhile, international pressure is setting in. Greece is meeting with the secretary of state tomorrow, an EU summit is being arranged to discuss Turkey and France has started to move some equipment to us. In event of war, I do believe our European partners may help us procure arms i(covertly, of course) if not directly get involved. Everyone in Europe understands that there is a problem and what happens in Greece impacts the rest of Europe.

[Don Giovanni]

But the rest of Europe may not have the will to confront Turkey. Italy and Germany are mainly in bed with them, not us. In practical terms, only the French have given us any practical support and that's due to their own ambitions, which in part rivals those of Italy and Germany. I think many consider us a burden and small potatoes, but Mitsotakis has done well to restore some semblance of normalcy in Greece again.

[Don Giovanni]

It eluded my attention yesterday, but Greece did deploy ships in response to the Turks.

According to a navigational telex it issued, Ankara reserved an area south of the Greek island of Kastellorizo to conduct research over the next two weeks. In response, Greece’s armed forces were placed in a state of absolute readiness, with units of the Hellenic Navy and Air Force deployed in the wider sea area where the Turkish research was expected.

When the Oruc Reis accompanied by ships of the Turkish Navy entered the Greek continental shelf, Greek warships sent messages at a frequency of about 15 minutes requesting the vessel’s removal from the area. The messages went unanswered by the vessel which, however, moving at a low speed – similar to that appropriate for a search process – had prepared cables to lower to the seabed in order to proceed with research activities in the area.

However, according to sources, exploratory activities were rendered impossible due to the noise caused by the many naval units sailing in the area. This is because exploration of this sort entails the transmission of data from the seabed and the noise of the ships made this transmission impossible.

[Filikieteria1821]

While Erdogan creates propaganda videos for the poor masses of Turkey, Greece has responded with a great number of ships.

News broke a few hours ago that Greek ship Limnos rammed the Turkish ship Kemal Reis that was maneuvering in Greek waters. It shows that Greece is alive and well in all of this and has not just sat there watching. We have to remember that Turkey and Greece going to war would be catastrophic for both countries and both know that.

Greece is using a lot of foreign policy capital and has secured an outright message of support from Israel, France, and the US. To add to the verbal support, France has stated that within the next few days Greece and France will be holding a large scale aerial exercise in the east med, while Dendias is set to speak with Mike Pompeo on Friday.

Turkey is very very mad about the Egypt deal and has called for all the med countries to come together and decide on how to share the med, except there is precedent on how to do that and it is called UNCLOS. Furthermore, Greece would never agree to sit at a meeting where Cyprus would not be a party to any meeting as Turkey does not recognize Cyprus.

Let's see how things play out and again god bless the men and women who are defending Greece.

[Don Giovanni]

It's the right reaction. We need to maintain this posture. At least France is giving us the right back up when we need it. I wish we could say the same of others.

The best I can say is the Pentagon isn't pro-Erdogan, but they're willing to live with him to some extent. It goes without saying the president is rather fond of Erdogan and has little to no rapport with any of our people. It doesn't bode well either that Trump had a falling out with Macron (read here). We see what influence Macron has over Trump most recently with respect to Lebanon. Their country is reeling from the sort of crisis that will drive even more of their Christian population out and this president decided sanctions was the right solution. Don't expect Trump to place similar sanctions on Turkey anytime soon. To add insult to injury, Trump has a number of pro-Turkish advocates in his administration like Jim Jeffrey (read: Bolton depicts U.S. envoy Jeffrey as an anti-Kurdish Erdoğanist in new book). Maybe Pompeo and the Pentagon can influence the president to remind Erdogan there are limits to what he can do, but as we have seen with NATO and the EU, I'm not optimistic.

[Filikieteria1821]

Saw this on Twitter today and it shocked me, but US has essentially frozen a bunch of military sales to Turkey for the last 2 years

https://www.defensenews.com/breaking...rly-two-years/