Turkey

[AGP]

AGP i saw the same floating around on Twitter. Wonder if it’s true because if it is it would one hell of an achievement.

I’m trying to think of a way a submarine would be able to cut the cables undetected. Greece has a few stealth submarines that the Turks have had fits trying to locate.

TBH. There is a lot of posturing.

It wouldn't surprise me if the cables in the Greek waters were cut and both sides know it. Turkey can't exactly attack any Greek naval assets without repercussions. It's all a big PR battle.

As long as Erdogan can at home claim he laid cables and Mitsotakis say they defended Greek borders both sides don't really care even if the truth is markedly different (i.e. cables being cut).

[Don Giovanni]

The overall posture of Ankara now appears deeply opposed to Biden but it is not entirely clear if the White House still sides as closely with Ankara as it once did. Key officials in the US State Department, such as former ambassador James Jeffrey, as seen as pro-Ankara. However in February when Jeffrey went to Turkey and spoke Turkish and mourned recent Turkish casualties as “martyrs,” Ankara then slammed Jeffrey as not being convincing. From attacking US protesters, detaining a US pastor, jailing a US consulate employee for eight years, detaining a US soldier, bashing the Trump administration for helping make peace with the UAE to mocking US envoys, and threatening to make the US pay a “price” for criticism, hosting Hamas and working more closely with Russia and Iran, Ankara appears to have adopted an increasingly hostile agenda when it comes to US relations.

Seems the worm has turned...

[Don Giovanni]

I'm inclined to believe the capable cutting was true and that we probably had help.

With respect to the US, there's not a whole world of difference between Biden and Trump on foreign policy. Biden might talk a big game, but the reality is the US continues to retreat after the disastrous efforts made under Bush Jr in the ME and after a major financial crisis. Biden might take a hard stance against Turkey, hard enough to apply crippling sanctions possibly like we've seen with Venezuela and Iran. We'll see in the debates if the issue of Turkey comes up. Biden is still trying to hide away as much as possible and has not spoken up about the matter. His reluctance to speak up seems a like tacit acknowledgement he's willing to live with Erdogan, despite remarks made to the New York Times back in December.

[aek66]

First thing first - Mitsotaki needs to learn the victimhood language of real politik immediately and state:

'The Turkish military actions are severely destabilising not only Greece but the entire Eastern Mediterranean. Greece therefore has no option but to immediately impose a full 12 EEZ to protect not only Greek citizens but the region's stability.'

i don't argue, but mitsotakis' starting point was woefully weak after nearly 30 years of cuckold regional foreign policy - that we had talked about for decades on the other forum. the ultimate disgrace of being led by the nose by a miniscule fyrom and constant whining about airspace violations...the current actions of greece must be surprising turkey. i have no doubt about that.

again, i believe greece has done well to this point on this crisis - i believe greece still needs to reach out to other island nations such as japan, to solidify it's diplomatic standing and position on this issue with turkey.

as far as the germans, they run brussels...likely to france's chagrin. i had mentioned for years that greece should seek out france to put pressure on a less than friendly u.k. and expose the ever widening gap and french envy between the u.k. and france for geopolitical positioning. now, it's time to do the same with france vs.germany for eu leadership and guidance.

you were correct in asserting that no action gives credence to turkey muddying the waters in the air..this is not currently occurring on the water and applause is due mitsotaki. not only did mitsotaki have to take the helm of a rudderless regional foreign policy ship, but also dealing with this crisis with greece's military prowness stagnating over the last few decades and turkey's military bolstered with quality, quantity and combat experience over the same time frame.

[Don Giovanni]

The problem with reaching out to Japan is our reliance on Chinese foreign investment. For financial reasons this may be a non-starter, but in saying that I agree with your premise in that maybe there is a way to approach them while treading carefully. A careful approach that doesn't offend China may achieve little though, but a tough Japanese stance against Turkey costs them nothing and may set the sort of precedent that would do them well vis-a-vis China even if we don't reciprocate anything of tangible value.

[aek66]

nah...i wouldn't put chinese feelings/money before greek sovereignty.

- the chinese have way more money in turkey and if push came to shove...i have no doubt china would back turkey in this. which then sees the dominoes fall perfectly into place with pakistan backing turkey and china backing pakistan due to china's border problems with india.

the chinese have invested apprx. $19 billion usd into turkey between 2005-2019. due to china being awash in money (medical supplies and pharmaceuticals) from a virus it allowed to infect the world; chinese investment in turkey is expected to be $6 billion alone in 2021. chinese banks are also loaning money to turkish state banks.

- china would also be prone to back turkey due to china's similar EEZ issues with taiwan, the phillipines and to some extent with vietnam and s. korea. notice i did not say for greece to rile up china by approaching those nations, but, to approach japan, which has an obscure island territorial dispute with china.

don't worry about offending china, china is prepared to deeply offend greece. if china pulls out of greece, greece will find other investors.

[Don Giovanni]

That may be complicated:

"The objective is to transform it into the biggest transit hub between Europe and Asia and, potentially, the biggest port in Europe," Kostas Fragogiannis, Greece's deputy minister for foreign affairs, told CNBC Wednesday.

China is the EU's biggest source of imports and its second-biggest export market. China and Europe trade on average over 1 billion euros a day, according to the European Commission.

[aek66]

foreign investors are back..greece can sell bonds and run the port itself. we need china to have the motivation to become europe's busiest port?

i can't believe this is even an issue. the chinese have problems with everyone - eu included, and business still occurs. greece standing up for itself and it may be a bad thing because we're afraid china will actually pull out..??

[Don Giovanni]

Brklyngrk

This may best explain Germany's position, at least some of their rationale:

Many are questioning why the EU was so easily able to mobilize to condemn Belarus, a non-EU member, but after years of Turkey violating Cypriot maritime space and being on the verge of war with Greece, the European bloc remains indifferent to their own members facing hostility from a non-EU member state.

As Matthias Warnig, the Chief Executive Officer of Nord Stream 2, himself says, Germany will become Europe’s main energy hub once the pipeline connecting “the world’s largest gas reserves in northern Russia to consumers in Europe” is complete. Germany remains defiant despite U.S. threats of sanctions to complete this project.

By Germany vetoing EU condemnation against Turkish aggression on Greece and Cyprus just days ago, Berlin is guiding Turkey towards a conflict with Greece. For the Germans, such a conflict would be beneficial as it would end the EastMed pipeline project between Israel, Cyprus and Greece that is favored by the U.S., ensuring that Germany remains the sole energy hub of Europe.

[tantra]

from CNBC

[aek66]

i detected a minor turkish slant. no mention of some very important facts, just that turkey feels boxed in and 'left out' by everyone else in their neighborhood - who could and should reap the rewards one day.

gee, that's not fair. i'm woke. turkish sea rights matter.

[Don Giovanni]

It's not just a matter of foreign investment, it's the fine print that concerns me: China does a $1 billion a day in trade with the EU. It would be good to have that trade flow through Greece primarily.

I think you are right about reaching out to Japan, but we should do so with caution. I think it would be best to let them voice support without us reciprocating anything in return.

[Don Giovanni]

A sobering reminder of our so-called alliances:

The recent top strategic agreement between the Islamic Republic of Iran and China indicates the will of the latter (with consent from Russia) to upgrade the regional role of the former in the direction of shifting the international center from the West to Eurasia. It will trigger a series of developments with cataclysmic extensions.

Trump claims if re-elected he will make a deal with Iran. Judging by all the bombings, the assassination and murder of Soleimani (a very high ranking Iranian official), the new sanctions laid by Trump, etc, it doesn't take a wise man to know where this is going.

China’s geo-economic strategy is in full contrast to that of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Eurasian agenda, although he himself knows that the “resolution” of the Turkish economy can be achieved by Turkey’s membership in the “Eurasian Economic Union” and the “Shanghai Cooperation Organization,” and its participation in the hatching alternative financial, banking and (crypto) monetary system promoted by China with Russia (for which, of course, Greece is unfortunately not interested in).

Neo-Ottoman megalomania, however, outweighs and is the one that (at least) provides the Turkish President with huge diplomatic flexibility. Erdoğan’s strategic goal to create an “anti-China,” serves strategic priorities of American diplomacy, as well as deeper goals of “unholy collusion,” which holds the fibers of the U.S. political system.

In this sense, not only should we not expect some meaningful assistance from the United States in resolving the Greek-Turkish crisis, but instead to address with great distrust and cautious initiatives by American diplomacy which aims exclusively at ensuring the maximum possible ExxonMobil and Chevron involvement in the East Mediterranean energy future.

If United States energy colossus reach a mutually beneficial agreement with Turkey, this agreement will be found on the ruins of Greece and Cyprus.

There are Americans who think precisely as this article suggests.

[aek66]

hmmm...in the previous article, i read that the usa is at odds with germany because germany wishes to be the eu energy hub via turkey. the usa prefers the energy to come from the EEZ's of egypt, israel, cyprus and greece. that would mean the usa wants a weaker turkey with no influence in eu decision-making.

now the above article tells me the usa wants a strong turkey to combat china. the above article is one man's (geopolitical analyst) opinion. all that analyst had to do was google how much chinese money has poured into and will pour into an anti-chinese turkey and i wonder if he knows something the chinese don't know.

[Reaper]

[Filikieteria1821]

The turks of course have designs on the Greek islands and it is directly linked to their constant bitching and complaining that they are militarized and thus preventing them from launching an invasion.

Open TV (a greek news channel) has reported that Germany does not want Greek parliament to approve the EEZ agreement between us and Egypt.

I think this is where we are going to see how much balls Mitsotakis has, and how sovereign we are. If we are a sovereign country, who is going to turn the corner and actually take into account our rights, then we will gladly tell Germany to get bent, and I would go even further and sign an EEZ agreement with Cyprus.

Dendias was in Cyprus today an thought that perhaps he and his counterpart would have made a surprise announcement, but I do think that a move like that will result in a third attila in Cyprus.

[Don Giovanni]

aek66

It wasn't that long ago when Israelis were debating in their parliament the prospect of making this pipeline deal with the Turks instead. Likewise, the US would have no qualms if the energy through the East Med involved Turkey too. In the end, Greece may or may not be involved in the deal and I don't think it would be any skin off of anyone else's back but our own.

Given how close Erdogan has grown with Trump, Biden remaining mum despite opportunities to raise the issues against Turkey in ways he could then use to attack Trump, then whose to say what will happen. Let's not take anything for granted.

[Don Giovanni]

Goes to show how tense things have become. Cyprus sees this as a positive development:

Cyprus Foreign Minister Nikos Christodoulidis says forces from other EU nations and countries in the region are likely to arrive and join the effort.

I hope we don't get stiff armed into a deal with Turkey.