Turkey

[Brklyngrk]

Apparently Turkey issued another Natvex to drill off Cyprus and they said the Oreuc will return to the Eastern med. in a month...we shall see..

[aek66]

I dunno, Germany is bed with Russia over many issues. Nord Stream 2 the defining example.

agreed. germany doesn't care where it gets gas and oil from, as long as it gets it. russia and turkey mean everything to the german economy running smoothly.

it was the usa that threw it's weight behind turkish pipelines & energy hub for the EU (better turkey than russia), but, if the gas in the eastern med is plentiful, the usa will throw it's weight behind the eastmed pipeline.

another factor in this is turkey not wanting out and out war with france & greece....but to delay for as long as possible the functioning of the eastmed pipeline. military confrontations, legal hurdles...they will try everything possible to delay it's start-up. other nations that attempt to toss a wrench into the eastmed pipeline will expose themselves as an agent nation for turkey and russia.

the eastmed pipeline makes turkey much less relevant. russia will always be relevant, germany also needs russian oil - russia is germany's #1 seller for oil.

the usual suspects and maybe a surprise one will pop up to challenge france/greece/cyprus along with the eastmed pipeline. the french alliance needs to hold firm and get israel and egypt closer.

[aek66]

israeli commentators/experts are warning israel to strengthen it's navy ASAP. they see the future. the gas fields and pipeline(s) will need protection.

eventually, greece will have 8 frigates..if all goes to plan, 4 acquitaine-class FREMMs and 4 updated and upgraded hydra-class MEKOs. i would like to see greece offer 2 hydra-class MEKO frigates to israel as soon as greece takes in it's first FREMM. in exchange, perhaps the israelis can give greece credits ($1.4 billion??) for a slight variant of the israeli sa'ar 72 mini-corvettes greece is contracted to co-manufacture and upgrading greek f-16s and helicopters with israeli avionics.

- i don't believe greece needs to match turkey in ship for ship.
- the MEKOs are not the best frigates on the market, but, they can be acquired in a heartbeat and satisfy the israeli need for today. 2 MEKOs can tide them over for right now, until french dockyards can catch up on orders. the italians also manufacture FREMMs..i'm not sure which variant of FREMM interests the israelis and i'm sure they would want them built for their needs and projections.

i would like to see greece budget another $1.6 billion for the navy. with that, greece can purchase:

2 belharra frigates
or
1 horizon-class frigate

the belharras will take years, the horizon-class frigate is a powerful anti-air frigate.

[Don Giovanni]

Is this move worth the risk (assuming we have French and/or other major allied support)? Or should we keep building up our defenses and make the 12 mile declaration when we are in a stronger position to do so and when tensions may have cooled? I don't believe such a strike would be a mistake, but it will invite some form of retaliation that probably won't be as strong if we pursue the second option. It might be what the Turks want to justify an outright military clash, but I think if they did that, it would be a big mistake on their part.

Whatever the case I welcome the comment. With the way the Turks keep talking, we need to make some pointed comments at them that bear some basis in reality which they will have to take seriously, unlike their own fantasy convictions.

[Don Giovanni]

I know we tend to gripe about Germany, but Italy and even Spain have commercial and banking interests tied to the Turks. And I think they can live with Turkey's foothold in Libya so long as their shores are better protected from migrant invaders. They seem willing to live with them, that's for sure.

[Reaper]

I think the most vital thing to do, and i cant understand why Greece hasn't done it, is to declare 12 miles eez in the Cyclades, Saronic, Sporades Islands urgently and also Crete. This takes them off the Turkish menu and teaches the Turks their 12 miles eez causi belli is about the Dodecanese and not every single piece of land and sea east of Athens. By leaving these islands as they are, the Greeks are destabilising them and the region and consequences sadly may therefore be deserved to a degree.

As for Spanish and Italian philturkism, it is long established. Where Greece has failed is with not embracing Austria on the matter. Austria cannot help the same way as France but is massively anti Turkish and should be a huge political ally. Austrian PM and ministers should be regulary invited to Greece for talks. Supranational entities with ambiguous morals that weaken Greece's sovereignty - like the EU and NATO, must be shown to be secondary tools behind the nation state (France, Cyprus, Austria, Egypt etc).

[Don Giovanni]

We have acted in a manner that is appropriate, maybe we've been too appropriate given the much more inappropriate Turkish threats and provocations.

I think Mitsotakis wants us to appear more credible and sincere in "negotiations" than Erdogan's side, to show the world he'll meet first with the relevant parties and get an agreement in place before making these types of sovereign declarations in the Aegean that has the Turks so hot and bothered. He did that with the precedent set in the Ionian sea. As for the Egypt deal, that was a tit-for-tat response to the Turkish-GNA deal. Again, this was appropriate even as Spanish (Borell on hot mic), Italian (his aide on twitter) and German officials and aides grumbled about it.

The stage has now been set for us to make the necessary declarations of sovereignty in the Aegean. Sooner or later Mitsotakis will have to make it.

There was a powerful image projected yesterday. While the Oruc Reis had returned to port, our female president visited the island at the main center of the dispute. The Turks countered with their defense minister's to a visit on the coastal city opposite the Kastellorizo island. Her visit came with a good show of military hardware and men. She even said that we must be prepared for war if we want peace. Well said and a good contrast to the bombastic barbarism coming from Erdogan's side. If I'm not mistaken, she has avoided that kind of rhetoric until now. Turkey could only bitch while watching from afar.

[LoneHorseman]

israeli commentators/experts are warning israel to strengthen it's navy ASAP. they see the future. the gas fields and pipeline(s) will need protection.

eventually, greece will have 8 frigates..if all goes to plan, 4 acquitaine-class FREMMs and 4 updated and upgraded hydra-class MEKOs. i would like to see greece offer 2 hydra-class MEKO frigates to israel as soon as greece takes in it's first FREMM. in exchange, perhaps the israelis can give greece credits ($1.4 billion??) for a slight variant of the israeli sa'ar 72 mini-corvettes greece is contracted to co-manufacture and upgrading greek f-16s and helicopters with israeli avionics.

- i don't believe greece needs to match turkey in ship for ship.
- the MEKOs are not the best frigates on the market, but, they can be acquired in a heartbeat and satisfy the israeli need for today. 2 MEKOs can tide them over for right now, until french dockyards can catch up on orders. the italians also manufacture FREMMs..i'm not sure which variant of FREMM interests the israelis and i'm sure they would want them built for their needs and projections.

i would like to see greece budget another $1.6 billion for the navy. with that, greece can purchase:

2 belharra frigates
or
1 horizon-class frigate

the belharras will take years, the horizon-class frigate is a powerful anti-air frigate.

I would go for the jugular, cultivate a long term relationship with the tribe, in return for blueprints and materials for their not so secretive nuclear program, the ultimate gamechanger.

[Brklyngrk]

Turkey even stated that they were bothered by her visit. Of all the islands, why pick that one...

The irony in all this, prior to the Oruc sailing in Greek waters, most countries did not want to get involved. Subsequently, we have received French military guarantees, EU support of sanctions, Israel/Egyption/UAE cooperation, and agreements to upgrade the military. The newest issue from Turkey is that want us to demilitarize the islands and if need be, a naval blockade may be necessary and appropriate until we do ( I guess they moved on from invasion).

[Reaper]

I would go for the jugular, cultivate a long term relationship with the tribe, in return for blueprints and materials for their not so secretive nuclear program, the ultimate gamechanger.

Pure logic.

[aek66]

I would go for the jugular, cultivate a long term relationship with the tribe, in return for blueprints and materials for their not so secretive nuclear program, the ultimate gamechanger.

i would think that greece, with it's own physicists and scientists, could easily develop it's own program - no need for israeli help/tech. i have a few issues with this: the cost and turkey would do the same, with help from a fawning and already nuclear pakistan. i also believe this will turn off our friends, while conventional wisdom says the nuclear club doesn't want any new members, the books are closed.

[aek66]

Turkey even stated that they were bothered by her visit. Of all the islands, why pick that one...

The irony in all this, prior to the Oruc sailing in Greek waters, most countries did not want to get involved. Subsequently, we have received French military guarantees, EU support of sanctions, Israel/Egyption/UAE cooperation, and agreements to upgrade the military. The newest issue from Turkey is that want us to demilitarize the islands and if need be, a naval blockade may be necessary and appropriate until we do ( I guess they moved on from invasion).

a turkish blockade on greek islands is an act of war. i believe greece is purchasing the naval helicopters to place on greek islands to hunt for subs and to repel turkish troop transports in event of an invasion upon aegean/e.med islands.

[Don Giovanni]

Wouldn't other countries, like Germany or Israel, try to prevent us from developing our own nukes?

Brklyngrk


It has been quite the turnaround since the bullshit that followed with Operation Irini. We're still too nice in many ways though, while the Turks are anything but. I'm not so sure if Mitsotakis' approach is the best one as I feel we can and should get away with more. It's more safe though to do things as he has.

[Brklyngrk]

I think he is meticulous in his approach, trying to show that we are reasonable and measured in what we do. A model country in an area of the world that needs stability. We could act more aggressive, but by taking the high ground, we endear ourselves to the rest of the EU in the face of Turkish aggression. If we had acted sooner, we may not have had the French support. By showing that Turkey is being unreasonable and clearly the aggressors, we have been able to mobilize our international support into something tangible. In a short period of time, we have accomplished quite a bit.

[Filikieteria1821]

Mitsotakis is playing the long game in his approach because I think Mitso is smart enough to know that no realistic deal can be reached with the Turks. Just today their foreign min say something to the effect that he doesn't understand why the islands have weapons, because in the event turkey invaded the weapons would be rendered useless.

Turkey has made it abundantly clear that it's desire is to control most of the Aegean and Cyprus in an effort to not only expand it's land mass, regain old ottoman territories, but to save it's economy and propel itself as a top power controlling energy in the east med and Aegean.

I believe the negotiations will be fruitless and an attempt from both sides to buy time. Erdogan's economy is about to blow up and Turkish exposure fears have hit Spain's BBVA on Garanti Bank Holdings.

Every day the lira gets more and more devalued and the markets aren't going to stop destroying their currency.

Not that a turk cares about money, especially his diehard base. Erdogan is also trying to ensure he does not get sanctioned, hence why he pulled the oruc reiss back. If the EU does not sanction turkey, then it'll be another nail in the coffin of a dying, glorified economic union.

A lot more will transpire, but Mitsotakis certainly knows there is no negotiating with the turks. Our positions run completely contrary to one another.