Turkey

[Reaper]

Perhaps nukes..

https://www.ekathimerini.com/257485/...e-at-souda-bay


https://www.ekathimerini.com/257488/...bay-base-visit

[Filikieteria1821]

Reports came out earlier today that the US is looking to remove important assets from Incirlik.

I wonder if the US will remove all of its nukes from incirlik or a portion as a way to keep power balance, or to keep one leg in each camp.

If it removes all of the nukes, it would be the most pro greek move America may ever take.

[Reaper]

Seems like something big.. Pompeo in Mitsotakis's house tonight in Crete.. seems big.

[Don Giovanni]

About the time Pompeo was due to fly to Crete, about 1,500 people gathered in Thessaloniki’s center for two separate demonstrations to protest his visit, carrying signs reading “The hawk of war is not welcome in our country,” and “The murderers of the peoples are not welcome.” The protests were organized by left-wing groups and the Communist Party.

Communists are such morons.

[Reaper]

Communists are such morons.

They miss Ottoman rule.

[Don Giovanni]

A comment on how America views Turkey:

Christos Zacharakis, one of Greece’s foremost diplomats and ambassador to Washington in the early 1990s, recently recounted a telling conversation with the late former secretary of state Lawrence Eagleburger, in which the top US diplomat told him: “Please don’t make us choose between Turkey and Greece; we won’t do it. Try to work things out for yourselves and we’ll be there to keep the balance. But if you make us choose, nine times out of 10 we’ll choose Turkey, because this is in America’s best interest.” Zacharakis observed that it was a truth he ascertained again and again.

When it comes to Turkey, the US and others are not dependable allies or partners. The US sees Turkey as too important a piece on the geopolitical board to give up to a Russian-Chineses axis. Now in saying that, Erdogan has become paranoid that America plans to get him after Assad, Ghaddafi, Saddam, etc. That paranoia is somewhat justified, but the coup was not American made even though it was carried out by American aligned Gulenists, who act on orders from Americans as we saw with the attack on the Russian jet.

Erdogan has a desire to make Turkey more independent so countries like the US can't meddle with their internal affairs. To do that, Turkey has to become more of an empire, more resourceful on its own with a strong military, and Erdogan is relying on old Ottoman and Islamic Caliphate sentiments to achieve that.

Maybe the US has gotten fed up and will do something to indicate they're patience is running low with Erdogan, that they don't need the Turks that badly. They won't express that in the form of sanctions, I think, but that could be driven home by a decision to move the base at Incirlik and rebase partly in Greece, partly elsewhere. That's my guess.

If Turkey continues down this path (there's a possibility to suggest they'll stop and return to this point when it's politically convenient), I do expect very serious sanctions and that they will eventually be treated like Iran is treated now.

As for Russia, I don't think Putin will ever trust Erdogan, nor would he ever back him in a dispute with the US. Prop him up to divide NATO and turn a US bulwark into a new Iraq mess, sure Putin will play coy to that end, but he will never back Erdogan in a meaningful capacity as he has done with Assad. Erdogan would be on his own, for his own people to topple. Unlike that weak coup, Erdogan would be in real trouble and turn the country into a full fledged new Sunni version of Iran just to stay in power. That's how this will go one day if Erdogan continues like this.

As for the Germans, they've made a bet with the Turks and that bet will come home to roost one day. No matter how this dispute goes, I think Germany will regret their closeness with the Turks.

[Don Giovanni]

A Russian buildup is turning the eastern Mediterranean Sea into one of the world’s most militarized zones, the U.S. Navy’s top admiral in Europe has said, warning that Moscow could cement its dominance in the region if it’s allowed to gain a foothold in Libya.

“The Russians are deploying quiet, modern diesel submarines capable of launching Kalibr cruise missiles. A Kilo-class submarine can go anywhere in European waters and strike any European or North African capital from under the waves,” he said from Naples, Italy, where NAVEUR has its headquarters. “This highlights the need to maintain a vigilant, highly capable naval presence throughout European waterways.”

[Reaper]

So the US sees Turkey and its constant destabilisation and warmongering in the region as a lesser threat than Russians in the area.

[Don Giovanni]

The US sees Russia as rivals. They don't want Turkey joining forces with Russia and would prefer to have the Turks on the side of the West. Erdogan has his own ambitions of turning Turkey into an independent force that has a say over world affairs, if at least regional affairs. Russia and the US can only tolerate so much of that ambition. If Turkey weren't part of NATO, I think they would have been put in their place by either or.

[aek66]

erdogan has a chance to extinguish the fire to his west (no war, no eu sanctions) as he's nurturing a fire to his east...but, he's making matters worse with greece. the turks are dreaming up absurd issues (continental shelfs?? we want to discuss the sovereignty of your islands) to 'negotiate' and clearly, greece needs to speed up the military equipment deliveries ASAP.

likely contrary to turkey's general staff's overall stance on war with greece, it seems as though erdogan supposes:

- the barbaros class frigate is more powerful (faster and carries more weapon power) than any current greek frigate
- turkey has a numerical advantage in terms of amount of naval craft
- turkey currently has a numerical advantage of modern fighters and helicopters
- turkey has a massive ballistic missile and UAV (drone) numeric advantage
- turkey can set up the s-400 missile sites to protect sensitive areas in asia minor. not sure about operational status. i believe turkey has/acquiring 120+ missiles.
- the first turkish attack carrier is expected to undergo sea trials in a few months

to me, the only thing that equals the weight of all those current turkish positives is the threat of facing france, if hostilities break out.

in other words, greece needs the rafales and new frigates ASAP. i don't understand going with MEKO, the egyptian navy is due a new FREMM and that FREMM could be delivered to greece right now. i don't think there is any harm in discussing this with egypt and france.

[Brklyngrk]

Apparently Turkey is pissed that Greece issued a NAVTEX by Crete, called it inflammatory since it is their waters. They also claimed Jerusalem as it is a city that Ottoman has been spilled and the unfair treatment of the Palestinians (which they are monitoring)

[Don Giovanni]

Germany will have a new leader who may be more amenable to letting Macron take the lead on European foreign policy:

Armin Laschet is fast emerging as the frontrunner in the race to be the ruling Christian Democrats' (CDU) candidate for chancellor in Germany's federal election next year after Angela Merkel stands down, two dozen party sources say.

Laschet, the premier of Germany's most populous state, North Rhine-Westphalia, who presents himself as the Merkel continuity candidate, is slowly building a majority among the CDU's 1,001 voting delegates ahead of December's vote on the party leadership, the sources say.

In an Aug. 18 visit to North Rhine-Westphalia, Merkel said Laschet had "the tools" to run for chancellor -- the closest she has come to endorsing any of the contenders, who also include foreign policy expert Norbert Roettgen.

His centrist views mean Laschet would be better suited to negotiate a possible future coalition government with the resurgent Greens, the CDU sources say. Opinion polls suggest the Greens are the most realistic coalition partner for the CDU/CSU.

A French speaker of Belgian descent, Laschet has been particularly keen to cement relations with Macron, with whom he would have to work closely as chancellor in steering the European Union through some daunting challenges ahead.

(emphasis mine)

In an honour reserved for special guests, Macron invited Laschet into the Elysee gardens, where they discussed Lebanon, Turkey and tensions in the eastern Mediterranean.

"We've always found he has been supportive of the president's proposals," a French diplomat said.

Laschet's spokesman said: "Despite all differences in detail, Armin Laschet has always welcomed and supported President Macron's impulses for the European unification process."

At the Munich Security Conference in February, Laschet apologised on behalf of the German government for taking "too long to react" to French calls for EU reform.

But some in the CDU fear he may end up being led by Macron.

"I've told him he has to be clearer about what he wants in foreign policy," said one senior lawmaker.

(emphasis mine)

With him as leader of Germany, I think Europe will get tougher where she needs to be in face of a growing Turkish threat.

[Filikieteria1821]

Turkey is planning to conduct a comprehensive test of the s-400 missile-defense system next week: Bloomberg

This comes after news broke that Turkey actually activated the system when Greece flew it's f16's to Cyprus and back....Trump refuses to impose CAATSA sanctions on Turkey

https://www.kathimerini.gr/politics/...in-oyasigkton/

Ενδείξεις ότι η Τουρκία ενεργοποίησε τα ραντάρ των αντιαεροπορικών συστημάτων S-400 προκειμένου να εντοπίσει ελληνικά, αμερικανικής κατασκευής, μαχητικά F-16 κατά την επιστροφή τους από την άσκηση «Ευνομία» στα ανοιχτά της Κύπρου στις 27 Αυγούστου 2020, φαίνεται ότι αποτέλεσαν τον κώδωνα κινδύνου που αφύπνισε την Ουάσιγκτον για την κατάσταση στην Ανατολική Μεσόγειο το προηγούμενο χρονικό διάστημα. Το συγκεκριμένο επεισόδιο ακολούθησε λίγες ημέρες μετά (12 Σεπτεμβρίου) η επίσκεψη του υπουργού Εξωτερικών των ΗΠΑ Μάικ Πομπέο στην Κυπριακή Δημοκρατία και λίγο αργότερα (27-29 Σεπτεμβρίου) στην Ελλάδα (Θεσσαλονίκη και Σούδα). Στην επιχείρηση της 27ης Αυγούστου η τουρκική αεράμυνα δεν είχε αντιληφθεί την ανάπτυξη των F-16 από τη βάση της Σούδας προς την Κύπρο και κατά την επιστροφή, είχε επιχειρηθεί, με βάση πληροφορίες της «Κ», ο εντοπισμός (και όχι εγκλωβισμός) τους, με τη βοήθεια τουρκικού αεροσκάφους έγκαιρης προειδοποίησης και ελέγχου που είχε ως σκοπό τον εντοπισμό των ελληνικών μαχητικών. Η συνέχεια έγινε και τότε γνωστή, καθώς τα έξι F-16, με τη βοήθεια τεσσάρων ακόμη μαχητικών της Πολεμικής Αεροπορίας από τη βάση της Σούδας, ενεπλάκησαν με τουρκικά μαχητικά στην περιοχή νότια Ρόδου και ανατολικά Κρήτης. Τις επόμενες ημέρες το τουρκικό ιπτάμενο ραντάρ (Boeing 737 AEW&C) χρησιμοποιήθηκε και άλλες φορές με σκοπό τον εντοπισμό των ελληνικών μαχητικών.

Είναι απολύτως σαφές ότι το παιχνίδι της Αγκυρας με τους S-400 ενοχλεί την Ουάσιγκτον, η οποία και έχει απειλήσει με επιβολή των κυρώσεων (CAATSA) σε περίπτωση ενεργοποίησης των ρωσικής κατασκευής πυραύλων. Σύμφωνα με ορισμένες πληροφορίες μερίδας του αντιπολιτευόμενου τουρκικού Τύπου, από την Αγκυρα σχεδιάζεται γενική δοκιμή των συστημάτων S-400 στο πεδίο βολής της Σινώπης στη Μαύρη Θάλασσα.

Ανεξάρτητα, πάντως, από τις αποφάσεις που θα λάβει η Αγκυρα το αμέσως επόμενο χρονικό διάστημα σχετικά με την αεράμυνά της, η προηγούμενη εβδομάδα ήταν κομβική από πολλές απόψεις, με βασικό γεγονός την τριήμερη επίσκεψη του κ. Πομπέο στη Θεσσαλονίκη και τη Σούδα. Οπως προκύπτει από τον μόνιμο ελλιμενισμό της πλωτής πλατφόρμας υποστήριξης επιχειρήσεων USS Hershel «Woody» Williams στις εγκαταστάσεις της Σούδας, οι ΗΠΑ ενισχύουν ουσιαστικά την παρουσία τους στην Κρήτη. Η υποστήριξη ενός πλοίου εκτοπίσματος 106.000 τόνων με δυνατότητες μεταφοράς ελικοπτέρων, UAV και άλλων συστημάτων, προϋποθέτουν σημαντικές αλλαγές στη βάση της Σούδας. Εξίσου προφανής είναι η απόφαση των ΗΠΑ να στηρίξουν την Ελλάδα στην ευρισκόμενη σε εξέλιξη ήδη από το 2016 (η «Κ» έχει επανειλημμένως επανέλθει στο θέμα έκτοτε) προσπάθεια για τη μετατροπή του Ναυστάθμου Κρήτης του Πολεμικού Ναυτικού στη Σούδα, σε βάση μόνιμου ελλιμενισμού τουλάχιστον μιας μοίρας του Στόλου. Στόχος ολοκλήρωσης αυτής της μεταφοράς μονάδων του Π.Ν. στην Κρήτη είναι το 2023, η βάση της Σούδας να έχει μετατραπεί σε έναν δεύτερο Ναύσταθμο με δυνατότητες προβολής ισχύος στην Ανατολική Μεσόγειο. Οσο εξειδικεύεται η νέα, διευρυμένη Συμφωνία Αμοιβαίας Αμυντικής Συνεργασίας (MDCA), θα προκύπτουν και τα επόμενα τμήματα των αμερικανικών ενόπλων δυνάμεων που θα αναπτύσσονται στην Ελλάδα (όπως π.χ. η στάθμευση ιπτάμενων τάνκερ KC-135 στην Λάρισα).

[Don Giovanni]

Greek authorities relied on two foreign nationals sent to western Turkey to pose as would-be refugees, approaching human smugglers that Turkey lets operate in violation of the agreement.

The Kathimerini report cited classified information identifying 35 members of four NGOs as coordinating the travel and landing of illegal migrants and would-be asylum seekers on the Greek isles, especially Lesbos, via “illegal methods and procedures.”

The suspects are identified as citizens of Germany, France, Switzerland, Austria, Norway and Bulgaria, with two of the groups based in Berlin but no one was identified in keeping with Greek privacy laws that expose the names of politicians and others on a regular basis.

This story needs o gains more traction.

[Reaper]

Watershed moment.