Libya

[Filikieteria1821]

Unfortunately, I doubt Greece does that because it lacks to testicular fortitude, as the saying goes.

Perhaps it changes, but man that would ratchet up the stakes because the Turks have labeled such a move as a cause for casus beli, but yet again, what isn't a cassus beli to them?

Being scared of the turks plays into their game. If you do what you want to do as a nation, and back that up with force, then they stop running their mouths

[Reaper]

Unfortunately, I doubt Greece does that because it lacks to testicular fortitude, as the saying goes.

Perhaps it changes, but man that would ratchet up the stakes because the Turks have labeled such a move as a cause for casus beli, but yet again, what isn't a cassus beli to them?

Being scared of the turks plays into their game. If you do what you want to do as a nation, and back that up with force, then they stop running their mouths

Turks have threatened many nations for various things. Threatened nations that recognise the Armenian Genocide. Threatened its neighbours constantly with war or military action if they even vote the wrong way. Every time they have been called on the threat they back down. Turkey states even if Corfu!! claims a 12 miles EEZ - it will be war. This is absurd. Greece should immediately claim a full 12 mile EEZ across Greece as is legally allowed under international law. Turkey will not recognise anyway but this is about Greece telling the world it is doing things by the book and within legality. This is about begining to create a real nation. Turkey does not want Greece to do this because it ends ambiguity and sets Greece on the path to being a legitimate sovereign state. As long as Turks can fly armed jets directly over the heads of Greeks over islands like Leros and Chios - the world knows Greece is not a real country - but simply an Ottoman province with no sovereignty..

All these problems in the Aegean are because Greece has not demonstrated to turkey it is a sovereign nation and it is completely natural for a country like Turkey who wants to expand to focus on nations that have no strategy and do not defend their territory like Greece.

[Don Giovanni]

January 24th: EU will not agree to Libya deal unless Turkey agreement scrapped – Greek PM

https://ahvalnews.com/greece-turkey/...apped-greek-pm

“I have made it very clear to everyone concerned that there is not going to be a political solution in Libya to which the EU will have to agree, where will agree, unless these agreements are scrapped,” Mitsotakis told a conference panel at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, referring to the two deals inked in November by Ankara and the U.N.-recognised government in Tripoli.

Despite a multilateral summit held last week in Berlin to ensure a ceasefire in Libya and to uphold a U.N. arms embargo, Haftar has launched a renewed attack to seize control of Tripoli.

January 26th: Turkey Accuses Greece of Hampering Peace Efforts in Libya

https://aawsat.com/english/home/arti...-efforts-libya

Funny, a week earlier that same minister claimed Greece wasn't a player in Libya. We're starting to make the right moves.

[Filikieteria1821]

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...landing-ashore


Can't copy and paste the content of the article because it exceeds the character limits but it seems that the turks have found a way to send naval assets off the coast of Libya.

Erdogan's deal with Sarraj is very important for the neo-ottoman dream because the aegean/med are seen in similar fashion to what the Nazi's used to call "lebensraum"

Greece and Egypt continue to be sidelined while they allow the regional bully to dictate how things are going to go

[Reaper]

Sadly Mitsotakis is like his sister. An Ottoman admirer. Turkey will continue to expand under his premiership. Greece actively helps Turkey grow and expand. Every decision - helps Turkey grow.

Turks have increased flying directly over the heads of Greek citizens on Greek sovereign islands the last month. No one believes these islands have anything but a lose association with Greek sovereignty now.

[Reaper]

Ottoman invasion of Libya has begun. Pretty hardcore.

https://twitter.com/LNA2019M/status/1222929871162236929

https://twitter.com/LNA2019M/status/1222928751480143872

[Don Giovanni]

Greece Accidentally Steered Into a Foreign Policy Crisis

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03...s-world-stage/

The country’s traditional allies, in Washington and across Europe, have done essentially nothing to intervene.

During a meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump last month, Mitsotakis failed to get any commitment to take Greece’s side in the dispute with Turkey. In response, the opposition in Greece’s Parliament called the prime minister’s diplomatic foray an “unprecedented fiasco.” The problems were compounded by the conference on Libya organized by Germany in January, where Russian President Vladimir Putin, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met to discuss a possible cease-fire with the two warring Libyan sides, as well as a possible resolution to the conflict. Greece was not invited at all, despite the fact its interests are now directly involved in Libya. To add insult to injury, reports in the German tabloid Bild suggest the decisive factor may have been Turkey’s insistence that Greece not be involved in the negotiations.

Greece’s position seems likely to worsen in the near future as Turkey and Russia deepen their ties (despite the fact the Syrian conflict has placed them on opposite sides), with the latter having already recognized the former’s statelet in Northern Cyprus and planning to open a military base there.

Mitsotakis would have been better served if he spent his years in opposition trying to understand the Syriza-led government’s diplomatic strategy, rather than attacking it at every opportunity. Syriza didn’t hesitate to cause problems for its more powerful allies for the sake of earning their respect. When the EU planned a resolution to deepen sanctions against Russia in January 2015, the Syriza-led government demanded to know why Greece wasn’t consulted, implicitly threatening a veto. Many took it as a sign the Syriza administration was preparing to abandon Europe in favor of a deeper relationship with Russia.

But that was far from the point. In the end, Greece did sign on for the sanctions, the European commissioner thanked Greece for its positive contributions, and the Greek government had made its point: The country shouldn’t just be taken for granted. In the following years, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and Foreign Minister Nikos Kotzias successfully stewarded their country’s geopolitical power, actively participating in multiple diplomatic conferences.

Truth be told, Syriza is a large part of the reason why we are in this mess. Tsipras spoke out against Trump during the election. And lest we forget, they didn't help matters when they kicked out Russian diplomats over the trans-Macedonia issue. Moreover, Tsipras, an ideological Marxist, desires acceptance among the European elite more than reaffirming Greece's sovereignty and that's what all these diplomatic conferences were really all about, him rubbing shoulders with the elite, gaining their acceptance on a personal basis, not for the sake of Greek national interests.

Ultimately, there was nothing to be gained for Greece either in Mitsotakis’s unequivocal support for the U.S. decision to take out Iran’s Suleimani or Dendias’s announcements of ineffectual military participation in the Middle East.

I don't think these were necessarily missteps, but I do agree that these actions have changed nothing.

But this is an approach that a small country like Greece simply cannot afford geopolitically. Perhaps Mitsotakis is now learning that lesson. His meeting in Athens with Turkey’s Libyan ally (sic, should read threat, not ally) Gen. Khalifa Haftar, a few days prior to the German conference, was a good first step. His trip to Paris that won over Macron to Greece’s side was also important. But overall, the government still seems dangerously out of its depth as it needlessly risks Greece’s interests. After attacking his predecessor government for so long, Mitsotakis should examine how it ensured Greece had a place at the table when its fate was being decided.

[Reaper]

Yes, Baboulias who wrote that piece is clearly a stupid leftist. Tsipras did massive damage to our standing. His highlights were that stupid referendum where he reneged on the result the next day telling the world he is a weak fraud. Him going to diplomatic war with Russia. The Macedonia issue. The continuing of illegal migrant flows. Tsipras weakened the nation massively.

You are correct Don that Tsipras - like many leftists had a massive desire to be accepted by Merkel. Even Varoufakis was amazed at that.

This article's solutions are again - bordering on total capitulation.

The first thing Mitsotakis should have done is tell the German he will veto every piece of EU legislation unless Greece is invited to the table and he should have told Haftar to do the same.

Mitsotakis is currently just overseeing the old Greek policy of managed decline. Lose territory - both physical and political - but make the process as slow and ambiguous as possible - if one can.

[AGP]

Reaper I can agree with the general sentiment of your post, but would disagree on some aspects.

I think in the broader strategy diplomatically pivoting towards France right now is the best path forward. Macron realistically is one of the more serious politicians in the EU. He knows absolutely, right now that given the UK has left that France has a real chance to cement itself as the leading diplomatic soft power in Europe. For all of the UK' bluster, it now doesn't have the influence France will have.

It's important for Greece that this relationship is built upon. The French have the best military capabilities in Europe, and if we can convince them to leave the De Gaulle carrier in the Mediterranean its the best course of action for Greece. If the alliance is built properly Greece can show military escalation through a French presence. Their capabilities are so advanced that Erdogan has to start behaving himself. Greece can be the good cop and start winning the diplomatic argument and go through the motions in political terms until the EU/US realise perhaps the current system isn't fir for purpose and start supporting Greece. Meanwhile there is always the French military waiting in the wings as the bad cop.

[Don Giovanni]

I just think Mitsotakis is inexperienced and too much of a gentleman. He has to learn to get tough and get on with the right partners. It's evident Germany will kowtow to the Turks, so our best hope through the EU is France. I also think Greece should work out an opening to eventually parlay Russia. We have done ourselves no favors antagonizing them like we did under Tsipras. The Russians and Turks are currently at logger heads in Syria. They support Haftar (LNA), but the Turks support the GNC. Russia recognized Northern Cyprus, yet Turkey still recognizes Crimea as Ukrainian territory. We should help drive the wedge between them and Turkey.

[Filikieteria1821]

France recognizes that Merkel's hold on the EU is slipping, which is compounded by the UK leaving. While Merkel bends over for Turkey, the rest of the EU looks in disbelief acknowledging that Merkel's love for Turkey creates a situation where the EU is beholden to a foreign entity that has not only threatened to flood the EU with migrants (highly unpopular) but is also threatening to change the EU by pressing for a more hard line - islamic stance from all Turks living in the EU. Germany has a large turkish minority living there.

Macron sees this and has pounced on the opportunity to flex the french muscles. With the most advanced military, and recognizing France can pave the way for EU policy, it is high time for Greece to align itself with France.

French and Greek relations are excellent, but I think now is the time to expand relations. Aside from acquiring Belharra frigates from France, it's been rumored that Greece wants to upgrade its Mirage fleet.

The mirage fighter planes have an advantage in the aegean, and the Turks do not have these planes in their arsenal.

With upgraded equipment, diplomatic alliances, and a change in ideology by the greek government, Greece can come out of this dilemma stronger. But again, much of this is about ideology. Greece is scared that if it gets involved in Libya it will down the economy again. Although a real fear, Greece cannot be fearful when it's neighbor makes decisions directly impacting Greek sovereignty.

The Libya crisis will see some very heavy fighting going forward because Turkey's aspirations are in direct alliance with the GNA. If they fail to secure GNA's power in Libya, then they fail to uphold the illegal MOU which strips Greece of it's rights.

[Reaper]

Reaper I can agree with the general sentiment of your post, but would disagree on some aspects.

I think in the broader strategy diplomatically pivoting towards France right now is the best path forward. Macron realistically is one of the more serious politicians in the EU. He knows absolutely, right now that given the UK has left that France has a real chance to cement itself as the leading diplomatic soft power in Europe. For all of the UK' bluster, it now doesn't have the influence France will have.

It's important for Greece that this relationship is built upon. The French have the best military capabilities in Europe, and if we can convince them to leave the De Gaulle carrier in the Mediterranean its the best course of action for Greece. If the alliance is built properly Greece can show military escalation through a French presence. Their capabilities are so advanced that Erdogan has to start behaving himself. Greece can be the good cop and start winning the diplomatic argument and go through the motions in political terms until the EU/US realise perhaps the current system isn't fir for purpose and start supporting Greece. Meanwhile there is always the French military waiting in the wings as the bad cop.

My experience of France is that it is another foreign policy fraud. They bitch 24/7 but exceptionally rarely do anything on the ground. Macron was even too afraid to admit he was arming Haftar with non lethal weapons. Macron was afraid to admit that because it was not Germany's policy. Macron was afraid to openly back Assad for the same reason. Macron lives through fear. Throughout the Brexit process I have been observing him - Macron threatened and threatened and threatened and each threat was fruitless as he backed down at the last minute each time to Merkel's position. France24 and the euro press covered each tantrum he had to show the world he was a player, but they rarely reported on the soon to follow capitulation afterwards. Macron is genuinely afraid of formulating any strategy - his country is divided left to right, christian vs muslim and he is a massive globalist and religiously pro EU. As we say in the UK he likes to flex. He will threaten - send a boat near a hot zone.. tell foreign leaders they need to be careful etc - but always do nothing. France is actually fairly similar to Greece - they miss their former empire, they try and keep their language alive in strange places in the world. France is ideologically lost. Paris is basically a caliphate and if Tsipras has another 10 years in power, Athens would be no different.

I agree however they have a decent sized military machine but like Greece's it is for show, not for use and Germany and the the world know that. France is not a player and like Greece - does not want to become a player. It is easier to bitch from the sidelines than actually deploy troops. The bitching usually wins a few nationalists who can argue; 'Wow, Macron is not happy! Maybe he cares about France! He looked really moody today next to merkel today! You see that? He cares!.' The EU and before that - the EEC was set up to curb German power and influence after WW2. France in the early years was placed by the US and others to be the leader of the project. After 70 years - France has once again been completely overshadowed and out manoeuvred by Germany. The EU is a German project now in totality. The Greeks when begging the EU for a bail out with not even meet with the EU officials and simply went directly to Germany each time. Same during Brexit - the UK contacted Merkel before bringing each proposal to the EU to save time - because if Merkel was not for it - there was no point going through the pretence that any other EU nation mattered.

Macron could be in Athens today. Instead Mitsotakis is touring the Arab states and Macron is virtue signaling as usual arguing with Israeli police.. neither Greece nor France wants a strategy. Germany will fill that void with Turkey and is doing so. UK is independent. It has a PM who actually speaks ancient greek, talks all day and night about being the next Perikles - his idol!! and whose secular great grandfather was strung up and executed in public by angry Turkish nationals. Has Mitsotakis even called him to discuss the Aegean pr crete? Nope. Why? Because Greece actively believes in managed decline.

For me Greece is a dying nation and has been since the 1940s. Decline - like a rise, requires a plan and Mitsotakis is strictly adhering to the managed decline strategy which has been in place for decades - approaching a century now.

[AGP]

I would disagree with the view on Macron vs UK in the Brexit process. I'm on the continent though, so there is probably a reason why what I have read/analysed comes from a differing perspective. Isn't it more or less that Johnson sold the DUP down the Liffey and ended up accepting the first EU offer prior to May's deal and selling it as a new deal? The extension period negotations were politicking from both sides.

Macron refusing to openly back Assad and Haftar is purely optics and PR IMO. There is a much greater diplomatic drive at play here, the wrong optics blows it in its infancy. In the same way he openly attempted to start relations with Russia. It was all about positioning and optics in my view

Re the military, I disagree. The French capabilities are by far the best in Europe, and their technology is more or less the best in the world. They have a genuinely well functioning defence industry. When I was working in the UK, you could see at a commercial level that the majority of defence spending is decided on the basis of attempting to prevent industrial decline in certain regions. It has left the UK Forces behind the French forces for example. (I use the UK as a point of comparison as I am very familiar with the industry there). The German forces on the other hand are more similar to the UK Forces in nature, more about supporting manufacturing and industry than anything serious in mind.

Anyway to the topic more so at hand. I think if Greece leans on France and gives Macron the opportunity to play the bad cop with Turkey I think it can be beneficial for both of us. Also maybe helps with future EU policy

[Reaper]

I would disagree with the view on Macron vs UK in the Brexit process. I'm on the continent though, so there is probably a reason why what I have read/analysed comes from a differing perspective. Isn't it more or less that Johnson sold the DUP down the Liffey and ended up accepting the first EU offer prior to May's deal and selling it as a new deal? The extension period negotations were politicking from both sides.

Half right. Boris signed a statement of understanding (non binding) which was 80% May's deal.

Since then both the EU and the UK's position have changed.

1/ Boris has stated no regularity alignment, no UK fishing waters to be controlled by the EU, No European Court of Justice, no level playing field. He has basically adopted Farage's Brexit and that got him elected in a landslide.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...boris-johnson/

Latest speech - worth watching.

However, the EU's position has also changed. They are refusing to give the UK a Canada style deal as they promised before. Boris has said a Canada or Australia type deal (WTO) will be fine. This is because the UK no longer cares what the EU says now. We are free and have a trade deficit with the EU. I think the new British and EU position can best be summed up by this cartoon:

Macron refusing to openly back Assad and Haftar is purely optics and PR IMO. There is a much greater diplomatic drive at play here, the wrong optics blows it in its infancy. In the same way he openly attempted to start relations with Russia. It was all about positioning and optics in my view.

Could be - except.. the French electorate despises Macron and any pro Haftar position - any disagreement with Merkel - he gains votes instantly. So the optics of backing Haftar - not bowing to Merkel 24/7 helps him. He refuses to do this because he genuinely believes in globalism and the managed decline of France. He is not interested in France even having its own army - he openly states as the true globalist he is, there should be an EU army and we all know who will end up being in charge of that.. it wont be the French..

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world...ean-commission

https://www.cer.eu/in-the-press/eu-e...ve-his-eu-army

Re the military, I disagree. The French capabilities are by far the best in Europe, and their technology is more or less the best in the world. They have a genuinely well functioning defence industry. When I was working in the UK, you could see at a commercial level that the majority of defence spending is decided on the basis of attempting to prevent industrial decline in certain regions. It has left the UK Forces behind the French forces for example. (I use the UK as a point of comparison as I am very familiar with the industry there). The German forces on the other hand are more similar to the UK Forces in nature, more about supporting manufacturing and industry than anything serious in mind.

Anyway to the topic more so at hand. I think if Greece leans on France and gives Macron the opportunity to play the bad cop with Turkey I think it can be beneficial for both of us. Also maybe helps with future EU policy

I don't think Greece has the brain power to involve France, Egypt etc in any type of play. The Greeks of the 1910s.. yes. The Greeks of the 1890s - sure. But now? I doubt it. France and Greece prefer the optics of complaining. That is usually enough to convince centrist voters that they care..

As for the army - I agree. France has a superb military and as you stated a decent industry. However I don't think the distance between the two armies is as vast as your state.

https://www.globalfirepower.com/coun...ing-europe.asp

You must also take into account - an army unused for decades but with good technology is not that powerful. Soldiers need experience - one thing the Turks, Russians etc understand. France is similar to Greece in that is army is used less and less. The UK will becoming more active again and is historically more active than the French army.

[AGP]

Cheers for the detailed and well natured response.

However, the EU's position has also changed. They are refusing to give the UK a Canada style deal as they promised before. Boris has said a Canada or Australia type deal (WTO) will be fine. This is because the UK no longer cares what the EU says now. We are free and have a trade deficit with the EU. I think the new British and EU position can best be summed up by this cartoon:

Quite interesting what will happen in the next year. Quite fascinating, as before this was all noise (and still is to now). However, when things matter I wonder who blinks first. It's complicated by the fact that this can't necessarily be sold in the same way by either side.

Could be - except.. the French electorate despises Macron and any pro Haftar position - any disagreement with Merkel - he gains votes instantly. So the optics of backing Haftar - not bowing to Merkel 24/7 helps him. He refuses to do this because he genuinely believes in globalism and the managed decline of France. He is not interested in France even having its own army - he openly states as the true globalist he is, there should be an EU army and we all know who will end up being in charge of that.. it wont be the French..

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world...ean-commission

https://www.cer.eu/in-the-press/eu-e...ve-his-eu-army

The EU army thing is an interesting point. Assuming he gets diplomatic control like my thesis suggests, on balance its probably a good thing for Greece? I'm ambivalent whether its actually a good thing net, net. For example if they decide they are going put some serious resources in the Aegean to stop Turkish overflights and illegal immigration to the islands I wouldn't be concerned with that. But on the other hand if it becomes a proxy for chasing social justice warrior fantasies its a real fucking problem.

My personal read is, right now its hard to see necessarily which way it would go. As I think its implementation would come with a re-think in terms of purpose.

I don't think Greece has the brain power to involve France, Egypt etc in any type of play. The Greeks of the 1910s.. yes. The Greeks of the 1890s - sure. But now? I doubt it. France and Greece prefer the optics of complaining. That is usually enough to convince centrist voters that they care..

As for the army - I agree. France has a superb military and as you stated a decent industry. However I don't think the distance between the two armies is as vast as your state.

https://www.globalfirepower.com/coun...ing-europe.asp

You must also take into account - an army unused for decades but with good technology is not that powerful. Soldiers need experience - one thing the Turks, Russians etc understand. France is similar to Greece in that is army is used less and less. The UK will becoming more active again and is historically more active than the French army.

I'd like to think Mitsotakis has the brain to see the bigger picture, and turning the civil service into a professional run organisation may pave the way forward. But your point in historical terms of complaining is valid in a Greek context ( I don't know enough about France in a social context to agree/disagree).

Are the French not quite active in Africa? I take your point about activity, but is it a guarantee the UK goes that way post Brexit?

My issue with the UK defence industry was its continual drive for cost cutting etc. It's a fairly recent thing we won't see the negative effects for until down the road as existing infrastructure is replaced/not upgraded with better tech.