Libya

[Reaper]

Cheers for the detailed and well natured response.

Quite interesting what will happen in the next year. Quite fascinating, as before this was all noise (and still is to now). However, when things matter I wonder who blinks first. It's complicated by the fact that this can't necessarily be sold in the same way by either side.

I dont think the UK will blink first. EU had the early rounds with the UK Government's self sabotage - 90% of TV media being anti Brexit - Irish, Scots and Welsh MPs causing havoc etc. EU just sat back and took advantage. I don't think this will happen again as there has been a purge, the election cleared away lots of that mess.

The EU army thing is an interesting point. Assuming he gets diplomatic control like my thesis suggests, on balance its probably a good thing for Greece?

If Macron got control of an EU army - I put him doing something - anything positive for Greece at around 30%. The chances of macron having any significant control over the EU army I put at around 5%. I suspect the main way France will gain an advantage in the early stages of an EU army is being able to win lucrative contracts to supply the EU army. However after a decade or 2 - Germany as always will dominate the market with its factories spread across the EU and Turkey. However that early window could make France a few billion per year easily. I bealive this is macron's aim concerning an EU army. Macron cannot control Paris's riots every week, him having any sort of role in decision making for an EU army is simply not believable.

I'm ambivalent whether its actually a good thing net, net. For example if they decide they are going put some serious resources in the Aegean to stop Turkish overflights and illegal immigration to the islands I wouldn't be concerned with that. But on the other hand if it becomes a proxy for chasing social justice warrior fantasies its a real fucking problem.

There is only one way to stop the Turks flying of sovereign Greek territory - that is to shoot those planes down like every nation on earth does when armed bombers from a foreign nation fly directly over the heads of your civilian population unannounced. I think the chances of the Greeks ever making any existing Greek Aegean territory sovereign is than is less than 5%. Managed decline involves making Turkey stronger and ceding more land - and that is what the Greeks will continue to do - under the straw man that Dora and the papers put out every day for the last 50 years - 'if we don't let the Turks do as they please - it will be war and people will die...'

I'd like to think Mitsotakis has the brain to see the bigger picture, and turning the civil service into a professional run organisation may pave the way forward. But your point in historical terms of complaining is valid in a Greek context ( I don't know enough about France in a social context to agree/disagree).

Are the French not quite active in Africa? I take your point about activity, but is it a guarantee the UK goes that way post Brexit?

I am fairly certain the UK will most likely be involved in future conflicts and like with Iraq, Afghanistan and Kuwait - it will be on a bigger and more direct scale than France. The French currently seem lost politically and ideologically. I think their last smallish activity was Mali in 2013 and even then there were many other nations involved. Again, not to keep harping on about it but France's active lack of involvement in Libya was exceptionally significant. Haftar did not need much help to take Tripoli - just a tiny push. France looked the other way both publicly and behind the scenes. The non-lethals they provided Haftar.. they may have well not bothered. There could be a future war or conflict that temps Macron (if he is told by his advisers it would boost his polling) but currently I can't see it.

As for Mitsotakis I suspect he has no plan. He has all the bravery and pro-activeness of a guy whose nightly masturbation is momentarily interrupted by the noise of cats fighting in the street.. he looks out the window - hisses at the cats and gets back to it. The cats continue to fight anyway. Greece will get weaker under his leadership. It already has.

My issue with the UK defence industry was its continual drive for cost cutting etc. It's a fairly recent thing we won't see the negative effects for until down the road as existing infrastructure is replaced/not upgraded with better tech.

The UK has been on this path since Suez. Poor infantry weaponry, cost cutting and just enough tech and innovation to get by against weaker opponents. Weapons jamming, poor armour, equipment problems - the UK army has been dealing with these issues for decades. Brexit however may now encourage more innovation and a little more spending.

[Filikieteria1821]

Haftar has big balls - Looks like the LNA has bombed a turkish ship that was docked in the port of Tripoli

https://www.in.gr/2020/02/18/world/ektakto-o-stratos-tou-xaftar-vomvardise-tourkiko-ploio-sto-limani-tis-tripolis/

[Filikieteria1821]

Ok, now there's conflicting reports stating that the ship itself wasn't bombed, but a cargo shipment that had just been offloaded from the turkish vessel.

[Reaper]

Christians in Libya under reported on by the msm:

https://www.mintpressnews.com/as-suq...-idlib/259046/

[Reaper]

Oh dear... Greece still legitimising the GNA...

[Don Giovanni]

I thought we expelled their diplomats. If I'm not mistaken, we accepted visits from the HoR's leading representative, who said his country's deal with Turkey was illegitimate, and CinC of the LNA, Haftar.

The GNA is not one, resolute whole. They are made up of warring, Islamist factions. I suspect some of those factions will eventually make a deal with Haftar. The real issue is Sarraj and his Turkish backing. Giving them the boot from Libya is our objective.

[Reaper]

I thought we expelled their diplomats. If I'm not mistaken, we accepted visits from the HoR's leading representative, who said his country's deal with Turkey was illegitimate, and CinC of the LNA, Haftar.

The GNA is not one, resolute whole. They are made up of warring, Islamist factions. I suspect some of those factions will eventually make a deal with Haftar. The real issue is Sarraj and his Turkish backing. Giving them the boot from Libya is our objective.

All true, but there is a simple action that needs to be made. Greek government hands over the embassy property to Haftar so he can fill it with his diplomats. I dont even want a GNA cleaner left in there.

[Reaper]

Erdogan busted by a BBC investigation. Caught with his pants down sending heavy arms to Libya despite him forcing Germany and other idiots to sign an agreement that no weapons should enter Libya!


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-...nts-into-libya


Haftar takes the city of Zalatan and most the towns next to the Libya/Tunisia border crossing in less than 24 hours.

[Reaper]

What exactly is Greece's role here besides hiding behind a rock?

[Don Giovanni]

I'm with you on this one. Our role, apparently is to bring "migrants" in:

https://euobserver.com/tickers/147910

EU countries have agreed to launch an air and sea surveillance mission, Operation Irini, in the Mediterranean in April to help stop Libya arms smuggling, diplomats told Reuters Thursday. Austria and Hungary had opposed it on grounds it would pull in migrants, but Greece agreed to take in rescued people on condition other EU states helped pay the costs. "Greece has allowed disembarkation in its ports," an EU diplomat said.

What a joke.

A French naval ship forced a Turkish freighter headed to Libya to reverse its course last week, the Greek outlet said. Meanwhile, Turkish surveying vessels continue to search for hydrocarbon resources, often in waters claimed by Greece’s Cypriot allies.

Cyprus is being left to fend for herself.

Meanwhile Trump got off the phone again with Erdogan to help "resolve" the issues in Libya and Syria. Did Trump tell him to stop sending arms? I don't think so. If anything, he pretended nothing of the sort happened and talked about how best to negotiate a path forward.

Mitsotakis has not made the case that Erdogan is of the same character as the Iranian clerics. And he should call out the US for supporting jihadists. He has not spoken up enough nor made himself noticed. He has kept quiet like a good little boy and Turkey's design remain well on course. That's not how leaders operate. He's not fit nor ready for the job.

I think Greece needs to start acting like a country again. Relying on international bodies is getting us nowhere. The UN has sided with Turkey. The EU and NATO, save for France, acts with what I can only call disinterest and tacit favoritism towards Turkey. No one will come to our (and that includes Cyprus) rescue. We have to prepare for an invasion of Libya and for outright war with Turkey. And we would need to send forces in to "observe" the peace in Libya for the time being. We cannot sit on hands here or else Turkey will continue to get more aggressive in the region and hold more pull over us, the EU, and our neighbors. We simply cannot afford that to happen,

[Reaper]

So Greece backed down and chose to show Turkey once again through its inaction in Libya that Greece sees its sovereignty as debatable..
However the damage doesn't stop there. The other European nations who are patrolling will question why Greece is not helping and the Greek status among these Europeans will again drop.

Was a brave decision for Mitsotakis to allow Greece to weaken itself like this. The easier option was to be involved.

1. Being actively involved would have told the EU/UN Greece is serious about its sovereignty and defending the med against terrorism and illegal migration.
2. Being actively involved would have told Turkey Crete's southern sea will be problematic for them to drill.
3. Being actively involved would have told Spain, Italy and France that Greece holds a secure section of the Eastern Mediterranean.
4. Being actively involved tells Haftar Greece is not all talk and that the LNA need to concentrate future plans with France, Greece, Italy jointly.

Not being involved does the opposite to each point. Mitsotakis still following his sister's strategy of active managed decline. That is why no Greek should blame Turkey in this. Greece not defending its land or sea means to an asiatic that Greece doesn't really want the land or sea in question. Greece is giving Turkey a whiff of pussy and then getting angry when Turkey starts groping away. Greece is living in some bizarre soft left parallel universe. Dora, the ultimate Greco Ottoman servant, is still the queen of Greece as far as policy in concerned. The 100s of soundbites she constantly gives journalists each week are not in vein and even worse - there is now a Greek president who is even more left wing than she is.

[Reaper]

Massive massive gains by the Turks in Libya the last 48 hours.

if there are any senior Greek generals reading. You urgently need to separate Mitsotakos from his sister Dora for the sake of Greece and speak to him directly. This Turkish advance directly affects Greece's geo-political situation south of Crete and beyond. The LNA are badly trained - poorly armed and most dangerously - have poor command structures. You must implore Mitsotakis to help the LNA make the difference. The EU, Italy, UN, NATO are all on the GNA's side. Greece is being asked by the Turks right now how badly it wants to keep the sea of Crete. Greece is not answering - so the Turks will take. To avoid that situation - arm the LNA - supply them with commanders immediately.

[Don Giovanni]

A good read:

https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2020/05/0...-declarations/

With the future control of its oil and gas exploration EEZ off the coast of Tripoli, Turkey is building its absolute role as the sole mediator between the Middle East oil and gas and its European and Western consumers.

This Turkish strategy is directly against Greek and above all Italian interests, but this is probably not even known to the Italian government, which now believes that foreign policy is always a version of Lenin’s “gala dinner”.

War in Libya for Greece may soon prove inevitable (unless we want to wait for it wash up on our own shores down the road anyways). If Mitsotaks is the man we hope him to be, he has to get Greece in front of the pack and convince the Italians that Erdogan is the greater threat. We can't leave the Italians to run operation Irini, especially if they continue to support Sarraj's regime. If we get them on the same page as France, we'll be getting somewhere. We need to wake the world up to the threat Erdogan poses. We need to get Biden to hit Trump on the head with it, turn it into an electoral issue. Trump's support for Erdogan won't play well in an election year. It's up to Mitsotakis to speak up.

[Reaper]

1. Biden - or anyone of the left would rather eat his own father than dare criticise any nation with a Sunni majority.
2. Italy is pro Turkish. Has been for decades. It would take a statesman of incredible talent to make Italy turn 180 on Turkey.
3. Mitsotakis is following Dora's regressive managed decline policy. No intervention - anywhere. He has shown nothing to go against a non-interventionist policy. Even in operation Irini Greece is firmly in the back seat with the child seats.

Haftar was touring Greece and other countries for support. He knew the tide was turning when Turkey entered the arena. Haftar is losing swathes of land to teenage Ottoman bashi bazouks daily. Greece just left him to the wind and as a result - technically have conceded to Turkey the oil and gas reserves below Crete.

So far Mitsotakis is doing exactly what Dora/Tsipras would have done concerning Libya - nothing. Not even a single machine gun to Haftar - not even a drone.

Libya has de facto been given to Erdogan to control. Haftar - the secularist, begged Greece for help - diplomatically speaking - Greece spat in his face and gave away the southern cretan sea without a shot fired.

Greek people dont care. Greek papers don't explain the situation properly - even if they did, most Greece believe Dora's propaganda that there will be nuclear holocaust for Greece if the Greeks even look at Erdogan the wrong way.

[Don Giovanni]

Bear in mind the US harbors Gullen and unofficially supported the Turkish coup against Erdogan. The Pentagon does want Erdogan out of the picture. The problem is Trump and Erdogan see each other as peas in the same pod because of the whole Deep State thing.

It's up to Mitsotakis to raise noise, that Erdogan's ambition is to everyone else's disadvantage. It's worth a try. If we can't get Italy on board, so be it. We have to still get out in front of this.